Al Shahaniya
vs
Lusail City
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Shahaniya 1–2 Lusail City
The model makes it 28% Al Shahaniya, 27% draw, 45% Lusail City — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al Shahaniya 1.32, Lusail City 1.97.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusail City at 45% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City
Al Shahaniya
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC12 September 2026
- L2-4away to Al Shamal4 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Sailiya29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Gharafa21 August 2026
Lusail City
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa11 September 2026
- W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
- D3-3away to Al Ahli Doha28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Rayyan SC20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 6 | Lusail City | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City
- 6 December 2025Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
- 12 February 2024Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail CitySecond Division
- 1 October 2023Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaSecond Division
- 6 May 2023Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaSecond Division
- 10 February 2023Al Shahaniya 2–0 Lusail CitySecond Division
- 7 February 2022Al Shahaniya 0–2 Lusail CitySecond Division
Leading scorers: Al Shahaniya and Lusail City
Al Shahaniya
- F. Antonucci3 goals2 assists
- A. Traoré2 goals
Lusail City
- F. Zavoshi2 goals
- H. Firouzi1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Shahaniya carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.5 for Lusail City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Al Shahaniya and 1.97 for Lusail City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shahaniya rate 0.57 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lusail City rate 0.64 and 1.30.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusail City the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al Shahaniya against 1.97 for Lusail City. Al Shahaniya's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.3 for Lusail City.