Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Shahaniya 1-0 Lusail City.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Al Shahaniya, 25% draw, 49% Lusail City — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lusail City at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Shehab EllethyG
- 19Abdulla Al SulaitiD
- 22S. van BeekD
- 5MuniesaD
- 32Khalid MuftahD
- 27I. DialloM
- 6Álvaro SanzM
- 21Mohamed SuragM
- 10F. AntonucciM
- 11Jawad El JemiliM
- 9A. TraoréF
- 17Abdulrahman Fahmi MoustafaF
- 14Salah Alawi Al YahriM
- 23Mohamed SaeedG
- 2A. MohamedD
- 16Mohamed AbdallahG
- 77Yousef Hani BallanD
- 8A. MeherziM
- 88Moameen MutasemM
- 20Ali QadryM
- 1A. ShakouriG
- 2A. PilaliD
- 4F. RussoD
- 27M. AiashD
- 66A. NematiD
- 6O. EbrahimiM
- 7F. ZavoshiM
- 20Naif Al HadhramiM
- 8Khaled MohammedM
- 11H. FirouziM
- 19RodrigoF
- 10S. JjbrilM
- 77Mohamed Al AshwalG
- 15Abdulhadi Kasr Al-OunM
- 22T. GeralnikM
- 70Mohamed KhaledF
- 30H. KamalD
- 3Ali MalolahD
- 5A. Al KaratlyM
- 14K. MansourM
Form going into Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City
Al Shahaniya
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC12 September 2026
- L2-4away to Al Shamal4 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Sailiya29 August 2026
Lusail City
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa11 September 2026
- W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Shahaniya | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 10 |
| 5 | Lusail City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shahaniya vs Lusail City
- 6 December 2025Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
- 12 February 2024Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail CitySecond Division
- 1 October 2023Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaSecond Division
- 6 May 2023Lusail City 1–1 Al ShahaniyaSecond Division
- 10 February 2023Al Shahaniya 2–0 Lusail CitySecond Division
Leading scorers: Al Shahaniya and Lusail City
Al Shahaniya
GoalsAssists
- A. Traoré40
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Shahaniya beat Lusail City 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lusail City at 49% and given a win for Al Shahaniya 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Mohamed Abdelfatah Surag 54' for Al Shahaniya. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.04.
How the call on Al Shahaniya v Lusail City has moved
First published on 24 Sep at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Lusail City's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Al Shahaniya win26%▼ −2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Lusail City win49%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.