22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Empoli vs Cremonese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Empoli 1-0 Cremonese.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Empoli, 28% draw, 38% Cremonese — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cremonese at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Empoli94%Draw6%Cremonese0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
Jari Vandeputte
19'
🔁M. Collocoloout: S. Elia
•Stiven Shpendi
21'
⚽S. Shpendiassist: C. Cauz
21'
45+2'
Matteo Bianchetti
🔁F. Di Stefanoout: B. Popov
57'
Joseph Ceesay
59'
🔁S. Shpendiout: K. Zedadka
63'
65'
🔁out: T. Berti
65'
🔁M. De Lucaout: M. Nasti
🔁E. Saporitiout: S. Romagnoli
77'
🔁E. Biondiniout: L. Belardinelli
77'
🔁G. Yepesout: L. Deli
77'
82'
🔁S. Lupertoout: Y. Rocchetti
85'
Federico Bonazzoli
Bogdan Popov
90+4'

Match stats — Empoli vs Cremonese

25%Possession75%
10Shots15
5On target2
2Corners5
1.04xG0.82

Goals against chances

Empoli1 from 1.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cremonese0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Empoli 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 35M. EganD
  • 25M. CurtoD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 15J. CeesayD
  • 8L. MagninoM
  • 21G. YepesM
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 10E. SaporitiM
  • 20F. Di StefanoM
  • 11S. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 1S. PerisanG
  • 22F. BrancoliniG
  • 28G. IndragoliD
  • 29L. TostoD
  • 31S. BabalolaD
  • 6S. RomagnoliD
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 98K. ZedadkaM
  • 38M. HuqiM
Coach: Guido Pagliuca
Cremonese 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FulignatiG
  • 38A. VogliaccoD
  • 15M. BianchettiD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 3G. PezzellaD
  • 8S. Lottici TessadriM
  • 16F. GerliM
  • 18M. CollocoloM
  • 90F. BonazzoliM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 9M. De LucaF
Substitutes
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 22F. Agazzi
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 21Y. RocchettiD
  • 13Fellipe JackD
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 25D. LordkipanidzeM
  • 71S. EliaM
  • 19M. NastiF
Coach: Marco Giampaolo

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Empoli112361219-79
9Cremonese114341412+215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Empoli vs Cremonese

  • 14 April 2023Cremonese 1–0 EmpoliSerie A
  • 11 November 2022Empoli 2–0 CremoneseSerie A
  • 13 April 2021Cremonese 2–2 EmpoliSerie B
  • 15 December 2020Empoli 1–0 CremoneseSerie B
  • 3 March 2020Cremonese 2–3 EmpoliSerie B
  • 3 December 2019Cremonese 1–0 EmpoliCoppa Italia

Leading scorers: Empoli and Cremonese

Empoli

GoalsAssists

  • E. Saporiti40

Cremonese

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bonazzoli62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Empoli beat Cremonese 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cremonese at 38% and given a win for Empoli 34%. The goal: S. Shpendi 21' for Empoli. Sent off: Joseph Ceesay (Empoli) 59'. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.82.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.