Avellino vs Arezzo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Avellino 1-2 Arezzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Avellino, 24% draw, 41% Arezzo — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Arezzo at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Avellino vs Arezzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50T. MartinelliG
- 29T. CancellottiD
- 4A. IzzoD
- 44L. SimicD
- 27B. MoruzziD
- 6L. PalmieroM
- 39M. BesaggioM
- 20M. PalumboM
- 14T. BiasciM
- 10R. RussoM
- 11D. FilaF
- 1A. IannarilliG
- 22J. SassiG
- 3M. SalaD
- 56P. EnriciD
- 63A. FontanarosaD
- 24D. SounasM
- 23M. VenturiD
- 16G. FaticantiM
- 8L. Di MaggioM
- 14A. NunzianteG
- 6A. RenziD
- 13M. GilliD
- 5J. IllanesD
- 37S. RighettiD
- 16M. SalaM
- 78G. IaccarinoM
- 17A. IonitaM
- 21C. TavernelliM
- 30A. ArenaF
- 71P. CianciF
- 90A. SeculinG
- 22F. SerbanG
- 4M. CoppolaroD
- 32A. CagnanoD
- 2M. MenaD
- 23M. VivianiM
- 8S. M. EkluM
- 24L. ChiericoM
- 7K. Leone
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Avellino and Arezzo
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo52
- M. Besaggio30
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arezzo won 2–1 at Avellino. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arezzo at 41%. The goals: R. Russo 15' for Avellino, P. Cianci (penalty) 56' for Arezzo, A. Ionita 90' for Arezzo. On expected goals it finished 0.69–1.51.