22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benevento vs Modena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Benevento 1-2 Modena.

Before kick-off the model made it 80% Benevento, 13% draw, 7% Modena — fair odds of 1.25, 7.69 and 14.29.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benevento at 80%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benevento0%Draw9%Modena91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Alessandro Bianco
⚽F. Salveminiassist: M. Maita
26'
63'
🔁P. Mendesout: S. Santoro
63'
🔁A. Imputatoout: Stenio
65'
⚽S. Santoro
🔁L. Cherubiniout: P. Saio
71'
🔁A. Priscoout: A. Talia
71'
74'
Stênio Zanetti
76'
⚽G. Caso
🔁C. Kouanout: G. Mignani
79'
🔁E. Pierozziout: L. Sernicola
80'
🔁L. Caldirolaout: E. Schimmenti
80'
81'
🔁G. Casoout: P. Azzi
81'
🔁A. Biancoout: K. Bozhanaj
Leonardo Sernicola
85'
90'
🔁G. Ambrosinoout: D. Montevago

Match stats — Benevento vs Modena

51%Possession49%
16Shots13
3On target4
8Corners4
1xG1.44

Goals against chances

Benevento1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth
Modena2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benevento 4-1-3-2
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 77E. PierozziD
  • 5L. CaldirolaD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 4A. PriscoM
  • 11D. LamestaM
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 10L. CherubiniM
  • 9F. SalveminiF
  • 28C. KouanF
Substitutes
  • 96A. SyllaG
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 38A. TaliaM
  • 80M. DonatielloM
  • 32G. MignaniF
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores
Modena 4-4-2
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 77D. TonoliD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 7F. ZampanoD
  • 26A. ImputatoM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 11P. MendesM
  • 10G. CasoM
  • 42A. BiancoF
  • 70G. AmbrosinoF
Substitutes
  • 12A. MaranG
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
  • 15M. OderoD
  • 27P. AzziM
  • 2G. BeyukuD
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 73P. ArnaboldiM
  • 37T. EgharevbaD
Coach: Daniele Galloppa

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Benevento114431511+416
2Modena117222010+1023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benevento vs Modena

  • 13 May 2023Benevento 2–1 ModenaSerie B
  • 18 December 2022Modena 1–1 BeneventoSerie B

Leading scorers: Benevento and Modena

Benevento

GoalsAssists

  • A. Siatounis40

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • A. Belotti70
  • G. Ambrosino33
  • G. Caso32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Modena won 2–1 at Benevento. The model had leaned towards a win for Benevento at 80% and given a win for Modena 7%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 14 matches like this one. The goals: F. Salvemini 26' for Benevento, S. Santoro 65' for Modena, G. Caso 76' for Modena. On expected goals it finished 1.00–1.44.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.