23 August 2026, 01:00 UTC

Austin vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result

Q2 Stadium, Austin
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Austin 1-1 Philadelphia Union.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Austin, 22% draw, 54% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 4.17, 4.55 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Philadelphia Union at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austin3%Draw91%Philadelphia Union6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽C. Sullivanassist: N. Harriel
⚽B. Hines-Ikeassist: J. Rosales
21'
37'
Jesus Bueno
41'
Neil Pierre
57'
🔁J. Buenoout: J. Lukic
57'
🔁I. Vassilevout: Q. Sullivan
🔁J. Alastueyout: F. Torres
63'
🔁C. Ramirezout: B. Vazquez
63'
🔁B. Hines-Ikeout: M. Desler
72'
🔁J. Rosalesout: P. Placheta
72'
74'
🔁C. Sullivanout: A. Anello
74'
🔁B. Damianiout: E. Alladoh
🔁J. Gallagherout: Z. Kolmanic
84'
Ervin Torres
90+6'
90+3'
🔁M. Iloskiout: A. Bedoya

Match stats — Austin vs Philadelphia Union

56%Possession44%
12Shots9
6On target3
6Corners6
1.6xG1.05

Goals against chances

Austin1 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Philadelphia Union1 from 1.05 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Austin
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 38E. TorresM
  • 14B. SabovicM
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 24J. AlastueyF
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 10M. UzuniF
Substitutes
  • 12D. LasG
  • 15J. BellD
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 23Z. KolmanicD
  • 6I. SanchezM
  • 77P. PlachetaM
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 7J. NelsonF
  • 9B. VazquezF
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
  • 18A. BlakeG
  • 39F. WestfieldD
  • 44N. PierreD
  • 26N. HarrielD
  • 27K. WagnerD
  • 6C. SullivanM
  • 21D. Jean JacquesM
  • 8J. BuenoM
  • 19I. VassilevM
  • 10M. IloskiF
  • 9B. DamianiF
Substitutes
  • 76A. RickG
  • 5J. Sery LarsenD
  • 11A. BedoyaM
  • 4J. LukicM
  • 33Q. SullivanM
  • 16B. BenderM
  • 28A. AnelloF
  • 23E. AlladohF
  • 51M. JakupovicF
Coach: Ryan Richter

Form going into Austin vs Philadelphia Union

Austin

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
  • L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Houston Dynamo26 July 2026
  • W3-1Seattle Sounders23 July 2026

Philadelphia Union

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
  • W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
  • W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
  • W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
  • W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026

What these results say

  • Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Austin had three goals or more.
  • Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Austin34810164265-2334
6Philadelphia Union34148126652+1450

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austin vs Philadelphia Union

  • 17 March 2024Austin 2–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 23 January 2024Austin 1–1 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 January 2023Philadelphia Union 3–2 AustinFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Austin and Philadelphia Union

Austin

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski192

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Austin and Philadelphia Union drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Philadelphia Union at 54% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: C. Sullivan 18' for Philadelphia Union, B. Hines-Ike 21' for Austin. On expected goals it finished 1.60–1.05.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.