Austin
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 14% Austin, 18% draw, 68% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 7.14, 5.56 and 1.47. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Austin 1.07, Philadelphia Union 2.48.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Austin
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Houston Dynamo26 July 2026
- W3-1Seattle Sounders23 July 2026
- L0-3away to St. Louis City23 May 2026
- L1-2Sporting Kansas City17 May 2026
Philadelphia Union
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
A clear gap in the ratings
Austin carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.73 for Philadelphia Union. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Austin L-L-W-L-L; Philadelphia Union D-L-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Austin and 2.48 for Philadelphia Union. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austin rate 0.51 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Philadelphia Union rate 0.87 and 1.11.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Austin against 2.48 for Philadelphia Union. Austin's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.11 for Philadelphia Union.