22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Carrarese vs Mantova Serie B prediction & result

Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Carrarese 1-2 Mantova.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Carrarese, 25% draw, 33% Mantova — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Carrarese at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Carrarese0%Draw5%Mantova95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Bodin Tomašević
22'
⚽F. Ruoccoassist: E. Gliozzi
46'
🔁B. Tomasevicout: A. Meroni
Jonas Rouhi
56'
57'
🔁J. Silvaout: D. Wieser
🔁Y. Khafiout: T. Guercio
59'
🔁F. Abiusoout: G. Marconi
59'
61'
⚽R. Ilieassist: A. Castellini
67'
🔁R. Ilieout: F. Chinetti
67'
🔁F. Ruoccoout: D. Bragantini
🔁J. Rouhiout: P. Pinelli
75'
⚽P. Pinelliassist: M. Cisse
80'
🔁L. Romaniout: N. Schiavi
84'
🔁F. Realeout: M. Finotto
84'
90+2'
🔁out: F. Paoletti

Match stats — Carrarese vs Mantova

48%Possession52%
10Shots12
2On target4
2Corners3
0.86xG1.17

Goals against chances

Carrarese1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mantova2 from 1.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 41L. RomaniD
  • 7N. BelloniM
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 8Y. KhafiM
  • 33F. RealeM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 9F. AbiusoF
  • 11M. CisseF
Substitutes
  • 19V. FiorilloG
  • 22M. BencasterG
  • 78T. GuercioD
  • 56N. RomagnoliD
  • 66P. PinelliM
  • 18N. SchiaviM
  • 71G. BaroncelliM
  • 32M. FinottoF
  • 91G. MarconiF
Coach: Gabriele Cioffi
Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomasevicD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 41J. SilvaM
  • 21S. TrimboliM
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 8R. IlieF
  • 19F. RuoccoF
  • 9E. GliozziF
Substitutes
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 12M. GaspariniG
  • 13A. MeroniD
  • 6J. LongondaM
  • 10D. WieserM
  • 20F. PaolettiM
  • 18S. KeitaM
  • 71F. ChinettiF
  • 11I. CajazzoM
Coach: Francesco Modesto

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Carrarese11317914-510
4Mantova115421511+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Mantova

  • 1 March 2026Mantova 1–1 CarrareseSerie B
  • 27 December 2025Carrarese 0–0 MantovaSerie B
  • 9 May 2025Mantova 2–1 CarrareseSerie B
  • 20 October 2024Carrarese 1–1 MantovaSerie B

Leading scorers: Carrarese and Mantova

Carrarese

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mantova won 2–1 at Carrarese. The model had leaned towards a win for Carrarese at 42% and given a win for Mantova 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Ruocco 22' for Mantova, R. Ilie 61' for Mantova, P. Pinelli 80' for Carrarese. On expected goals it finished 0.86–1.17.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.