11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Empoli vs Arezzo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Empoli 0-1 Arezzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Empoli, 29% draw, 28% Arezzo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Empoli at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Edoardo Biondini
18'
🔁Matteo Eganout: Karim Zedadka
25'
•Marco Curto
43'
Marco Curto
45'
45'
🔁Alessandro Arenaout: Emiliano Pattarello
🔁Edoardo Biondiniout: Simone Romagnoli
45'
62'
🔁Mattia Vivianiout: Alberto Cerri
62'
🔁Pietro Cianciout: Leonardo Mancuso
🔁Steven Shpendiout: Bogdan Popov
68'
72'
🔁Marco Olivieriout: mattia sala
🔁Joseph Ceesayout: Luca Belardinelli
73'
🔁Gerard Yepesout: Filippo Bandinelli
73'
74'
⚽Simone Romagnoli (OG)
88'
🔁Shaka Mawuli Ekluout: Luca Chierico
89'
matteo gilli

Match stats — Empoli vs Arezzo

45%Possession55%
10Shots15
2On target2
3Corners4

Line-ups

Empoli 3-5-2
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 25M. CurtoD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 35M. EganM
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 21Gerard YepesM
  • 10E. SaporitiM
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 11S. ShpendiF
  • 15J. CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 23F. BandinelliM
  • 36D. BembnistaD
  • 5D. Degli InnocentiM
  • 44L. DeliM
  • 20F. DistefanoF
  • 28G. IndragoliD
  • 16F. MeznarF
  • 1S. PerisanG
Coach: G. Pagliuca
Arezzo 4-3-3
  • 14A. NunzianteG
  • 6A. RenziD
  • 13M. GilliD
  • 4M. CoppolaroD
  • 37S. RighettiD
  • 17A. IoniţăM
  • 23M. VivianiM
  • 8S. MawuliM
  • 30A. ArenaF
  • 71P. CianciF
  • 99M. OlivieriF
Substitutes
  • 9A. CerriF
  • 24L. ChiericoM
  • 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
  • 33D. ManciniD
  • 11L. MancusoF
  • 47Aleandro ManesM
  • 2M. MenaD
  • 10E. PattarelloF
  • 16Mattia SalaM
Coach: C. Bucchi

Form going into Empoli vs Arezzo

Empoli

  • W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
  • W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026

Arezzo

  • L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
  • L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Empoli420234-16
11Arezzo420259-46

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Empoli vs Arezzo

  • 11 September 2026Empoli 0–1 ArezzoSerie B

Leading scorers: Empoli and Arezzo

Empoli

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Arezzo

  • P. Cianci2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.