11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Empoli vs Arezzo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Empoli 0-1 Arezzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Empoli, 29% draw, 28% Arezzo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Empoli at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Edoardo Biondini
18'
🔁Matteo Eganout: Karim Zedadka
25'
•Marco Curto
43'
Marco Curto
45'
45'
🔁Alessandro Arenaout: Emiliano Pattarello
🔁Edoardo Biondiniout: Simone Romagnoli
45'
62'
🔁Mattia Vivianiout: Alberto Cerri
62'
🔁Pietro Cianciout: Leonardo Mancuso
🔁Steven Shpendiout: Bogdan Popov
68'
72'
🔁Marco Olivieriout: mattia sala
🔁Joseph Ceesayout: Luca Belardinelli
73'
🔁Gerard Yepesout: Filippo Bandinelli
73'
74'
⚽Simone Romagnoli (OG)
88'
🔁Shaka Mawuli Ekluout: Luca Chierico
89'
matteo gilli

Match stats — Empoli vs Arezzo

45%Possession55%
10Shots15
2On target2
3Corners4

Line-ups

Empoli 3-5-2
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 25M. CurtoD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 35M. EganM
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 21Gerard YepesM
  • 10E. SaporitiM
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 11S. ShpendiF
  • 15J. CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 23F. BandinelliM
  • 36D. BembnistaD
  • 5D. Degli InnocentiM
  • 44L. DeliM
  • 20F. DistefanoF
  • 28G. IndragoliD
  • 16F. MeznarF
  • 1S. PerisanG
Coach: G. Pagliuca
Arezzo 4-3-3
  • 14A. NunzianteG
  • 6A. RenziD
  • 13M. GilliD
  • 4M. CoppolaroD
  • 37S. RighettiD
  • 17A. IoniţăM
  • 23M. VivianiM
  • 8S. MawuliM
  • 30A. ArenaF
  • 71P. CianciF
  • 99M. OlivieriF
Substitutes
  • 9A. CerriF
  • 24L. ChiericoM
  • 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
  • 33D. ManciniD
  • 11L. MancusoF
  • 47Aleandro ManesM
  • 2M. MenaD
  • 10E. PattarelloF
  • 16Mattia SalaM
Coach: C. Bucchi

Form going into Empoli vs Arezzo

Empoli

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
  • W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026

Arezzo

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
  • L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Empoli9216815-77
14Arezzo9315919-1010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Empoli and Arezzo

Empoli

GoalsAssists

  • E. Saporiti30

Arezzo

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arezzo won 1–0 at Empoli. The model had leaned towards a win for Empoli at 43% and given a win for Arezzo 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Simone Romagnoli (own goal) 74' for Arezzo. Sent off: Marco Curto (Empoli) 45'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.