11 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benevento vs Hellas Verona Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Benevento 3-1 Hellas Verona.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Benevento, 30% draw, 37% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hellas Verona at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benevento99%Draw1%Hellas Verona0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Edoardo·Pierozziassist: Davide Lamesta
17'
24'
⚽Amin Sarrassist: andrea le borgne
32'
Amin Sarr
45'
🔁Antoine Bernedeout: Grigoris Kastanos
Christian Kouan
48'
⚽David Okerekeassist: Mattia Maita
59'
61'
🔁Mattia Compagnonout: Tomas Suslov
61'
🔁andrea le borgneout: Abdou Harroui
63'
Seid Korac
⚽Davide Lamestaassist: Christian Kouan
65'
69'
🔁Amin Sarrout: Dailon Livramento
🔁Davide Lamestaout: Christian Dalle Mura
71'
Antonis Siatounis
74'
🔁Antonis Siatounisout: Mattia Mannini
74'
🔁David Okerekeout: Marco Tumminello
78'
82'
🔁Edoardo Iannoniout: Salvatore Cerbone
88'
Salvatore Cerbone
Francesco Salvemini
90'
90'
Tomas Suslov

Match stats — Benevento vs Hellas Verona

42%Possession58%
13Shots11
6On target3
4Corners9

Line-ups

Benevento 4-3-2-1
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 77E. PierozziD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 28C. KouanM
  • 11D. LamestaM
  • 29D. OkerekeM
  • 9F. SalveminiF
Substitutes
  • 5L. CaldirolaD
  • 10L. CherubiniF
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 80M. DonatielloM
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 16Mattia ManniniD
  • 32G. MignaniF
  • 21E. SchimmentiM
  • 96A. SyllaG
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores
Hellas Verona 4-3-3
  • 1N. LealiG
  • 4G. ZappaD
  • 48S. KoračD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 6D. BradarićD
  • 44E. IannoniM
  • 24A. BernedeM
  • 17A. Le BorgneM
  • 11M. CompagnonF
  • 19S. MulattieriF
  • 9A. SarrF
Substitutes
  • 35S. CerboneF
  • 37N. CalabreseD
  • 70F. ChamD
  • 27P. DawidowiczD
  • 71D. De BattistiD
  • 21A. HarrouiM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 23N. LellaM
  • 34S. PerilliG
Coach: M. Baroni

Form going into Benevento vs Hellas Verona

Benevento

  • L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
  • D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
  • L1-2Modena22 August 2026

Hellas Verona

  • W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
  • L1-2Ascoli23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Benevento41125504
16Hellas Verona411286+24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benevento vs Hellas Verona

  • 3 March 2021Benevento 0–3 Hellas VeronaSerie A
  • 2 November 2020Hellas Verona 3–1 BeneventoSerie A
  • 22 April 2019Hellas Verona 0–3 BeneventoSerie B
  • 9 December 2018Benevento 0–1 Hellas VeronaSerie B
  • 4 April 2018Benevento 3–0 Hellas VeronaSerie A
  • 16 October 2017Hellas Verona 1–0 BeneventoSerie A

Leading scorers: Benevento and Hellas Verona

Benevento

  • F. Salvemini2 goals

Hellas Verona

  • S. Mulattieri2 goals1 assists
  • S. Cerbone2 goals
  • A. Sarr2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.