11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm Pro League prediction & result

King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 29% draw, 23% Al-Hazm — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Ahli Jeddah99%Draw1%Al-Hazm0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽A. Al Nakhliassist: E. Acolatse
⚽Trincaoassist: I. Toney
21'
⚽I. Toney (pen)
32'
⚽I. Toney
45'
46'
Sultan Tanker
46'
🔁A. Al Shanqitiout: M. Konate
46'
🔁A. Al Shamraniout: A. Sayoud
⚽Ivan Toney (pen)
49'
63'
🔁S. Al Rashidout: M. Al Yami
🔁Galenoout: M. Al Mutairi
69'
🔁Trincaoout: F. Al Buraikan
69'
🔁S. Baattiaout: M. Abdulrahman
75'
•Ivan Toney
81'
83'
🔁A. Diakiteout: W. Al Shanqiti
83'
🔁E. Acolatseout: M. Al Hamdani
🔁Z. Al Hawsawiout: S. Balobaid
90'
🔁E. Spertsyanout: R. Hamidou
90'

Match stats — Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm

51%Possession49%
23Shots18
8On target3
5Corners4
5.78xG1.78

Goals against chances

Al-Ahli Jeddah3 from 5.78 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Hazm1 from 1.78 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1-4-1
  • 16E. MendyG
  • 15S. BaattiaD
  • 28M. DemiralD
  • 3IbanezD
  • 2Z. Al HawsawiD
  • 6V. AtanganaM
  • 7TrincaoM
  • 47S. Abu Al ShamatM
  • 8E. SpertsyanM
  • 13GalenoM
  • 17I. ToneyF
Substitutes
  • 1A. Al SanbiG
  • 5M. SulaimanD
  • 31S. BalobaidD
  • 46R. HamidouD
  • 11M. Al MutairiM
  • 29M. AbdulrahmanD
  • 25F. FallatahM
  • 9F. Al BuraikanF
  • 21A. RadifF
Coach: Marino Pusic
Al-Hazm 4-2-3-1
  • 23I. ZaiedG
  • 2S. Al RashidD
  • 13A. Al ShanqitiD
  • 4S. TunkarD
  • 27A. Al NakhliD
  • 17B. MugishaM
  • 24A. BahM
  • 70A. Al ShamraniM
  • 28S. BendebkaM
  • 7E. AcolatseM
  • 29A. DiakiteF
Substitutes
  • 36J. StanekG
  • 82A. Al HarbiD
  • 95J. AteeqD
  • 8M. KonateM
  • 98A. Al Hujaili
  • 10A. SayoudM
  • 5M. Al Yami
  • 11W. Al ShanqitiF
  • 77M. Al HamdaniF
Coach: Jalel Kadri

Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Pro League

  • L2-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC8 September 2026

Al-Hazm

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Al Taawon8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Al-Faisaly FC5 September 2026
  • D1-1Al Shabab30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Al-Ahli Jeddah107032713+1421
13Al-Hazm122461420-610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm

Al-Ahli Jeddah

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toney132
  • Trincão63

Al-Hazm

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 3–1. The model had made a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Al Nakhli 2' for Al-Hazm, Trincao 21' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, I. Toney (penalty) 32' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, I. Toney 45' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. On expected goals it finished 5.78–1.78.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.