5 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Eldense vs Mallorca Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat, Elda
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Eldense 0-0 Mallorca.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Eldense, 29% draw, 41% Mallorca — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mallorca at 41% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Eldense3%Draw92%Mallorca5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Martin Valjent
45+1'
⚽Alex Sala (pen)
49'
Antonio Raíllo
David Ruiz Montero
50'
🔁J. Martinezout: A. Olabarrieta
58'
62'
🔁T. Latoout: A. Soumahoro
62'
🔁J. Cerdaout: P. Torre
62'
🔁Z. Luvumboout: A. Liso
🔁M. Carmonaout: M. Nieto
64'
73'
🔁A. Fuentesout: A. Buksa
🔁J. Martinout: C. Guirao
76'
🔁Fidelout: I. Recio
77'
🔁G. Machoout: R. Lopez
77'
83'
🔁A. Salaout: G. Fernandez
90+4'
Adrian Liso

Match stats — Eldense vs Mallorca

44%Possession56%
8Shots11
3On target6
5Corners8

Line-ups

Eldense 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. VilaG
  • 17J. ClementeD
  • 5A. G. SerradellD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 21D. RuizD
  • 18G. MachoM
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 10FidelM
  • 24J. MartinezM
  • 23J. MartinM
  • 9M. CarmonaF
Substitutes
  • 36D. Bernabeu
  • 13JuanpaG
  • 2I. RecioD
  • 3J. LariosD
  • 12R. LopezM
  • 15C. GuiraoM
  • 11M. NietoF
  • 29D. RodriguesF
  • 33A. OlabarrietaF
Coach: Claudio Barragan
Mallorca 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. TenasG
  • 34M. CalatayudD
  • 24M. ValjentD
  • 21A. RailloD
  • 3T. LatoD
  • 8M. MorlanesM
  • 10S. DarderM
  • 11Z. LuvumboM
  • 7A. SalaM
  • 19J. CerdaM
  • 18A. FuentesF
Substitutes
  • 25Pichu CuellarG
  • 13L. BergstromG
  • 15J. DonaldD
  • 22A. SoumahoroD
  • 4D. LopezD
  • 29L. OrejuelaD
  • 6A. SanchezM
  • 2G. FernandezM
  • 20P. TorreM
Coach: Luis Garcia

Form going into Eldense vs Mallorca

Eldense

  • L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
  • D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026

Mallorca

  • W3-0AD Ceuta FC30 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
  • W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Eldense8224810-28
5Mallorca842283+514

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Eldense and Mallorca

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Mallorca

  • Fuentes4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.