Eldense
vs
Mallorca
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 27% Eldense, 26% draw, 47% Mallorca — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Eldense 1.17, Mallorca 1.62.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Eldense
- L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026
Mallorca
- W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Eldense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Eldense carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.77 for Mallorca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Eldense L; Mallorca W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Eldense and 1.62 for Mallorca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eldense rate 0.56 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mallorca rate 0.95 and 1.11.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Eldense against 1.62 for Mallorca. Eldense's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.11 for Mallorca.