Valladolid
vs
FC Andorra
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 27% Valladolid, 28% draw, 45% FC Andorra — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.04, FC Andorra 1.43.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Valladolid
- L0-2away to Mallorca15 August 2026
FC Andorra
- W5-1AD Ceuta FC15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Valladolid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Andorra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Valladolid
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Andorra
- Nacho Quintana2 goals
- Álex Calvo1 goals1 assists
- Jordi Cano1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Valladolid carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.9 for FC Andorra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Valladolid L; FC Andorra W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Valladolid and 1.43 for FC Andorra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valladolid rate 0.60 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Andorra rate 1.01 and 0.92.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Andorra the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Valladolid against 1.43 for FC Andorra. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.92 for FC Andorra.