5 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

Real Sociedad II vs Tenerife Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Zubieta, San Sebastian
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Real Sociedad II 1-1 Tenerife.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Real Sociedad II, 29% draw, 30% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Sociedad II at 41% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Sociedad II5%Draw92%Tenerife3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
🔁J. Alvarezout: Fabricio
40'
Juanjo Sánchez
57'
Enric Gallego
60'
⚽Fabricio
🔁J. Garroout: I. Ruperez
61'
🔁I. Aguirreout: T. Carbonell
61'
66'
🔁M. Pecarout: I. Chapela
Iñaki Rupérez
67'
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
70'
🔁A. Mariezkurrenaout: J. Soroeta
71'
🔁A. Lebarbierout: G. Gorosabel
72'
73'
Fabricio Assis
76'
Iván Chapela
76'
🔁J. Morenoout: C. Alvarez
77'
🔁out: A. Krdzalic
⚽J. Soroetaassist: J. Balda
81'
•Javier Soroeta
82'
🔁D. Diazout: J. Eceizabarrena
88'

Match stats — Real Sociedad II vs Tenerife

56%Possession44%
8Shots5
1On target1
2Corners3
0.53xG0.55

Goals against chances

Real Sociedad II1 from 0.53 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tenerife1 from 0.55 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Sociedad II 4-4-2
  • 1A. FragaG
  • 2J. GarroD
  • 4L. BeitiaD
  • 5K. KitaD
  • 3J. BaldaD
  • 7D. DiazM
  • 8I. AguirreM
  • 6A. LebarbierM
  • 17L. AstiazaranM
  • 10A. MariezkurrenaF
  • 18G. CarreraF
Substitutes
  • 32L. OlasagastiG
  • 13T. FolgadoG
  • 23U. AgoteD
  • 22I. RuperezD
  • 29I. RoperoD
  • 16G. GorosabelM
  • 21J. EceizabarrenaM
  • 14T. CarbonellM
  • 34A. AdjabengF
Coach: Ion Ansotegi
Tenerife 4-4-2
  • 1D. MartinG
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 12A. LandazuriD
  • 4J. LeonD
  • 2D. RodriguezD
  • 8V. MorenoM
  • 6Juanjo SanchezM
  • 16J. AlvarezM
  • 10N. GilM
  • 7M. PecarF
  • 18EnricF
Substitutes
  • 40G. De VuystG
  • 3R. JureskinD
  • 21M. MateuD
  • 19C. AlvarezD
  • 20M. PittonM
  • 23A. KrdzalicM
  • 15FabricioM
  • 29D. FernandezM
  • 24I. ChapelaF
Coach: Alvaro Cervera

Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Tenerife

Real Sociedad II

  • D2-2away to Burgos31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Albacete22 August 2026
  • L0-1Castellón14 August 2026

Tenerife

  • L0-1Sporting Gijon28 August 2026
  • W1-0Almeria23 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Eibar16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Real Sociedad II82241113-28
12Tenerife83231012-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Tenerife

  • 9 April 2022Real Sociedad II 1–2 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 28 November 2021Tenerife 2–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División

Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Tenerife

Real Sociedad II

  • Gorka Gorosabel3 goals1 assist

Tenerife

  • Enric Gallego5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.