Sporting Gijon
vs
Girona
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 28% Sporting Gijon, 23% draw, 49% Girona — fair odds of 3.57, 4.35 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.43, Girona 1.92.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sporting Gijon
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Girona
- L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
- D1-1Leganes16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sporting Gijon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Girona | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sporting Gijon
No league goals recorded yet.
Girona
- Abel Ruiz1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting Gijon carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.95 for Girona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sporting Gijon D; Girona D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.92 for Girona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Gijon rate 0.90 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Girona rate 1.03 and 0.84.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sporting Gijon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sporting Gijon against 1.92 for Girona. Sporting Gijon's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/0.84 for Girona.