Sporting Gijon vs Girona Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 0-2 Girona.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Sporting Gijon, 29% draw, 39% Girona — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 39% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Girona
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. YanezG
- 2G. RosasD
- 24A. DunabeitiaD
- 15P. VazquezD
- 44A. CuencaD
- 11K. de la FuenteM
- 6N. MartinM
- 14A. CorrederaM
- 20N. IosifovM
- 19J. OteroF
- 10C. Gelabert PinaF
- 13E. AranaG
- 3P. GarciaD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 23J. SaenzD
- 4E. GularteD
- 5D. SanchezD
- 21M. LoumM
- 36B. RubioM
- 27E. PrendesF
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 16A. FrancesD
- 5D. LopezD
- 38H. Zamorano
- 11A. MorenoD
- 22Y. AsprillaM
- 8F. BeltranM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 17B. GilM
- 9A. RuizF
- 19V. VanatF
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 1S. PuigG
- 4J. BonarD
- 3M. MoreyD
- 2A. MuminD
- 33M. FurtadoD
- 6D. van de BeekM
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 14I. MoranteM
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Girona
Sporting Gijon
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Girona
- W5-2Las Palmas29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
- D1-1Leganes16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Girona | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Girona
- 15 May 2022Sporting Gijon 2–1 GironaSegunda División
- 3 September 2021Girona 1–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 17 May 2021Girona 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 26 September 2020Sporting Gijon 2–0 GironaSegunda División
- 6 July 2020Sporting Gijon 0–0 GironaSegunda División
- 18 August 2019Girona 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Girona
Sporting Gijon
- Antonio Casas3 goals
Girona
- Y. Asprilla4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.