AD Ceuta FC
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 65% AD Ceuta FC, 18% draw, 17% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 1.54, 5.56 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 2.53, Celta de Vigo II 1.26.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AD Ceuta FC
- L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026
Celta de Vigo II
- D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 12 | Celta de Vigo II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
AD Ceuta FC
- Jordi Escobar1 goals
Celta de Vigo II
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AD Ceuta FC carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.65 for Celta de Vigo II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): AD Ceuta FC L; Celta de Vigo II D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for AD Ceuta FC and 1.26 for Celta de Vigo II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AD Ceuta FC rate 1.25 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta de Vigo II rate 0.71 and 1.07.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Celta de Vigo II, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AD Ceuta FC the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC against 1.26 for Celta de Vigo II. AD Ceuta FC's attack/defence rating is 1.25/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.07 for Celta de Vigo II.