5 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
Full time0 – 2

Final score: AD Ceuta FC 0-2 Celta de Vigo II.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% AD Ceuta FC, 28% draw, 33% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AD Ceuta FC at 39% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AD Ceuta FC0%Draw4%Celta de Vigo II96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Alexis Olmedo Vila
Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez
42'
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
42'
43'
⚽Adrià Capdevilaassist: Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez
45'
🔁Alexis Olmedo Vilaout: Pablo González Meixús
🔁Jordi Escobarout: Albert Caparros
45'
🔁Yann Bodigerout: Omar Sadik
45'
🔁Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguezout: Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
45'
🔁Cedric Teguiaout: José Matos
59'
65'
🔁Ángel Arcosout: Bernard Sarpong Somuah
66'
🔁Alvaro·Marin Sesmaout: Hugo Cuenca
69'
Enrique Ribes Recaj
Carlos Hernández
72'
72'
Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez
🔁Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirreout: Umaru Konare
76'
79'
Hugo Cuenca
82'
🔁Mateo Sobral Sabajanesout: Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye
83'
Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye
Albert Caparros
89'
90+1'
🔁Frank Germain Jonathan Millerout: Pablo Gavián Alonso
90+3'
⚽Bernard Sarpong Somuahassist: Pablo Gavián Alonso

Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II

49%Possession51%
18Shots15
6On target4
8Corners4

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC 4-4-2
  • 1P. LopezG
  • 18A. PetxaD
  • 6C. HernandezD
  • 14Y. BodigerD
  • 16C. Redruello NimoD
  • 11C. TeguiaM
  • 15J. GonzalezM
  • 20A. MelendezM
  • 7A. CamachoM
  • 8K. ZalazarF
  • 9J. EscobarF
Substitutes
  • 13G. VallejoG
  • 2Toni AbadD
  • 4A. CaparrosD
  • 3Matos JoseD
  • 34D. MasD
  • 32A. OsoroM
  • 17M. MensahM
  • 26A. BetancourtM
  • 31A. R. GonzalezM
Coach: Jose Romero
Celta de Vigo II 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. B. CarrilloG
  • 21A. OlmedoD
  • 3K. RibesD
  • 20A. RodriguezD
  • 23G. MillaM
  • 16A. CapdevilaM
  • 29M. SobralM
  • 18J. LopezM
  • 10O. MarcosF
  • 11A. ArcosF
  • 9A. MarinF
Substitutes
  • 13Caio BaroneG
  • 25M. GonzalezG
  • 4S. M. NdiayeD
  • 2P. GavianD
  • 6P. MeixusD
  • 17H. F. Cuenca MartinezM
  • 15A. KibetM
  • 7B. SomuahF
  • 19A. DavilaF
Coach: Fredi Alvarez

Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II

AD Ceuta FC

  • L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
  • L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
  • L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026

Celta de Vigo II

  • L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
  • W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21AD Ceuta FC8125718-115
18Celta de Vigo II82241014-48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II

  • 20 May 2023Celta de Vigo II 1–1 AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
  • 18 September 2022AD Ceuta FC 1–3 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Celta de Vigo II

AD Ceuta FC

  • Carlos Hernández4 goals
  • Jordi Escobar3 goals1 assist

Celta de Vigo II

  • A. Marin3 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.