Regular Season - 8 · 12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec Czech Liga prediction & result

epet ARENA, Prague
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 24% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.94, FK Jablonec 1.02.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec

55%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 10%2-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sparta Praha at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sparta Praha99%Draw1%FK Jablonec0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Adam Karabec
6'
Martin Suchomel
8'
⚽Josimar Alcocerassist: Jonatan Braut Brunes
19'
40'
Nelson Okeke
45'
🔁Lamin Jawoout: Antonín Růsek
45'
🔁Matej Polidarout: Saidou Alioum Moubarak
45'
🔁Nelson Okekeout: Sebastian·Nebyla
⚽John Mercadoassist: Adam Karabec
56'
Josimar Alcocer
61'
62'
Saidou Alioum Moubarak
🔁Hugo Sochurekout: Santiago Eneme
63'
71'
🔁Richard Sedláčekout: Daniel Soucek
🔁Josimar Alcocerout: Ebrima Singhateh
72'
🔁John Mercadoout: Matej Jurasek
72'
🔁Martin Suchomelout: Pavel Kadeřábek
79'
🔁Jonatan Braut Brunesout: Matyáš Vojta
79'
79'
🔁Filip Zorvanout: Filip Vecheta

Match stats — Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec

69%Possession31%
18Shots8
7On target2
9Corners3

Line-ups

Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovčíkG
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 22L. Mbe SohD
  • 6T. GuddalD
  • 11M. RynešD
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 38H. SochurekM
  • 17J. MercadoM
  • 10A. KarabecM
  • 7J. AlcócerM
  • 14J. Braut BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 31M. JurásekM
  • 3P. KadeřábekD
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 15V. VitályosD
  • 29M. VojtaF
  • 26P. VydraM
  • 30J. ZelenýD
Coach: Brian Priske
FK Jablonec 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. HanušG
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 4N. TekijaškiD
  • 15D. PavlovićD
  • 20J. SlámaD
  • 13R. SedláčekM
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 7V. TchanturishviliM
  • 8F. ZorvanM
  • 21M. PolidarM
  • 44L. JawoF
Substitutes
  • 27F. VechetaF
  • 14D. SoučekD
  • 23E. SobolD
  • 9A. RůsekF
  • 57F. NovákD
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 33M. KukučkaG
  • 22Roman HorákM
  • 19J. ChramostaF
Coach: L. Kozel

Form going into Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec

Sparta Praha

  • L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
  • L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
  • W4-1Teplice15 August 2026

FK Jablonec

  • W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
  • L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Teplice30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sparta Praha84041512+312
8FK Jablonec8413108+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec

  • 12 September 2026Sparta Praha 2–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 3 May 2026Sparta Praha 2–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 18 April 2026Sparta Praha 3–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 19 July 2025FK Jablonec 1–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 4 May 2025Sparta Praha 1–3 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 15 December 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec

Sparta Praha

  • J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
  • J. Mercado3 goals1 assists

FK Jablonec

  • M. Cedidla3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.94 goals for Sparta Praha and 1.02 for FK Jablonec; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Josimar Alcocer 19' (Sparta Praha), John Mercado 56' (Sparta Praha).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 1.02 for FK Jablonec. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 1/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.19 for FK Jablonec.