Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 25% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec
Line-ups
- 44J. SurovčíkG
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 11M. RynešD
- 28R. MacekM
- 38H. SochurekM
- 17J. MercadoM
- 10A. KarabecM
- 7J. AlcócerM
- 14J. Braut BrunesF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 18A. IrvingM
- 31M. JurásekM
- 3P. KadeřábekD
- 27E. SinghatehM
- 15V. VitályosD
- 29M. VojtaF
- 26P. VydraM
- 30J. ZelenýD
- 1J. HanušG
- 18M. CedidlaD
- 4N. TekijaškiD
- 15D. PavlovićD
- 20J. SlámaD
- 13R. SedláčekM
- 6N. OkekeM
- 7V. TchanturishviliM
- 8F. ZorvanM
- 21M. PolidarM
- 44L. JawoF
- 27F. VechetaF
- 14D. SoučekD
- 23E. SobolD
- 9A. RůsekF
- 57F. NovákD
- 25S. NebylaM
- 33M. KukučkaG
- 22Roman HorákM
- 19J. ChramostaF
Form going into Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
- L0-3away to Lyon11 August 2026
FK Jablonec
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
- L0-2away to Teplice30 August 2026
- W1-0Rangers27 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
- Sparta Praha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sparta Praha | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs FK Jablonec
- 3 May 2026Sparta Praha 2–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 18 April 2026Sparta Praha 3–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 19 July 2025FK Jablonec 1–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 4 May 2025Sparta Praha 1–3 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 15 December 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and FK Jablonec
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes52
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 2–0. The model had made a win for Sparta Praha its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Josimar Alcocer 19' for Sparta Praha, John Mercado 56' for Sparta Praha.
How the call on Sparta Praha v FK Jablonec has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Sparta Praha's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sparta Praha win48%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- FK Jablonec win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.