Clermont Foot
vs
Rodez
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Clermont Foot 2–1 Rodez
The model makes it 40% Clermont Foot, 27% draw, 33% Rodez — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Clermont Foot 1.57, Rodez 1.35.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Clermont Foot's rating is built from 43 Ligue 2 matches and Rodez's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Clermont Foot are 16th on 7 points from 9 games; Rodez are 17th on 7 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Clermont Foot have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Laval.
- Rodez have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Montpellier.
- Last 5 meetings: Clermont Foot 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Clermont Foot 1–2 Rodez.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Clermont Foot vs Rodez
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Clermont Foot at 40% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Clermont Foot vs Rodez
Clermont Foot
Ligue 2
- D3-3away to Laval16 October 2026
- L2-3RED Star FC 9310 October 2026
- D1-1away to Grenoble18 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dunkerque4 September 2026
Rodez
Ligue 2
- L0-3Montpellier19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026
- L3-4Nancy18 September 2026
- L0-1Grenoble11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
What these results say
- Clermont Foot did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Clermont Foot scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Clermont Foot conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rodez did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Clermont Foot | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Rodez | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Clermont Foot vs Rodez
- 13 February 2026Clermont Foot 1–2 RodezLigue 2
- 19 September 2025Rodez 0–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 22 July 2025Clermont Foot 2–1 RodezFriendlies Clubs
- 10 May 2025Rodez 1–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 13 December 2024Clermont Foot 1–1 RodezLigue 2
Leading scorers: Clermont Foot and Rodez
Clermont Foot
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Rodez
GoalsAssists
- I. Baldé50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Clermont Foot carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.4 for Rodez. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Clermont Foot and 1.35 for Rodez. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Clermont Foot rate 0.59 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rodez rate 0.72 and 1.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Clermont Foot a 0.1% chance of the title and Rodez 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Clermont Foot the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Clermont Foot against 1.35 for Rodez. Clermont Foot's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.8 for Rodez.
How the model reaches 40% for Clermont Foot to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Clermont Foot to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Clermont Foot's ratings take away 22 points and Rodez's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Clermont Foot's ratings19%−22
- Rodez's ratings40%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Clermont Foot at home · Rodez away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Clermont FootRodez
Clermont Foot are 16th after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); Rodez are 17th after 9 (between 2nd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Clermont Foot 9, Rodez 9.
Clermont Foot score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Rodez have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Clermont Foot
- at Annecy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 26%
- vs Metz4 Dec · Ligue 2win 36%
- at Nancy11 Dec · Ligue 2win 29%
Rodez
- at Guingamp20 Nov · Ligue 2win 35%
- vs Reims4 Dec · Ligue 2win 30%
- at Boulogne11 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.