Ironi Kiryat Shmona
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
The model makes it 25% Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 28% draw, 47% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.00, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.82.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 47% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 September 2026
- L0-4Maccabi Haifa14 September 2026
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W3-0Hapoel Petah Tikva18 September 2026
- L1-4away to Maccabi Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Haifa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- E. Boateng2 goals2 assists
- D. Owusu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ironi Kiryat Shmona carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.59 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 1.82 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona rate 0.55 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.65 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1 expected goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona against 1.82 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Ironi Kiryat Shmona's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.13 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.