Heart of Midlothian
vs
St Johnstone
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 30% Heart of Midlothian, 25% draw, 45% St Johnstone — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.39, St Johnstone 1.73.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Heart of Midlothian
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
St Johnstone
- L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026
- W4-3Kilmarnock2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs St Johnstone
- 14 May 2025Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 23 February 2025St Johnstone 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 22 December 2024Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 2 November 2024St Johnstone 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 7 February 2024St Johnstone 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 25 November 2023Heart of Midlothian 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
Leading scorers
Heart of Midlothian
- Cláudio Braga1 goals2 assists
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler1 goals1 assists
- K. Fotheringham1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.59 for St Johnstone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Heart of Midlothian L-W; St Johnstone W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.73 for St Johnstone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.50 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Johnstone rate 0.86 and 1.47.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Heart of Midlothian, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Johnstone the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.73 for St Johnstone. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.47 for St Johnstone.