Celtic
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 81% Celtic, 12% draw, 7% Falkirk — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Celtic 3.16, Falkirk 0.88.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Celtic
- W5-1away to Kilmarnock9 August 2026
- W1-0Dundee3 August 2026
Falkirk
- D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
- L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Celtic vs Falkirk
- 25 April 2026Celtic 3–1 FalkirkPremiership
- 1 February 2026Celtic 2–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 14 January 2026Falkirk 0–1 CelticPremiership
- 29 October 2025Celtic 4–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 15 August 2025Celtic 4–1 FalkirkLeague Cup
- 22 September 2024Celtic 5–2 FalkirkLeague Cup
Leading scorers
Celtic
- K. Høgh3 goals
- B. Nygren2 goals1 assists
- L. McCowan1 goals
Falkirk
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celtic carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.23 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Celtic W-W; Falkirk L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.16 goals for Celtic and 0.88 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celtic rate 0.95 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.51 and 1.76.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.16 expected goals for Celtic against 0.88 for Falkirk. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.76 for Falkirk.