Kilmarnock
vs
Dundee United
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 68% Kilmarnock, 17% draw, 15% Dundee United — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Kilmarnock 2.64, Dundee United 1.19.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kilmarnock
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Dundee United
- L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 11 | Dundee United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Dundee United
- 2 May 2026Kilmarnock 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 21 February 2026Dundee United 1–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 29 November 2025Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 27 September 2025Dundee United 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 17 August 2025Kilmarnock 2–1 Dundee UnitedLeague Cup
- 1 February 2025Kilmarnock 1–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers
Kilmarnock
No league goals recorded yet.
Dundee United
- L. Rose1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kilmarnock carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.16 for Dundee United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kilmarnock L-L; Dundee United D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.64 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.19 for Dundee United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kilmarnock rate 0.74 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee United rate 0.47 and 1.89.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee United, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kilmarnock the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.19 for Dundee United. Kilmarnock's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.89 for Dundee United.