Drogheda United
vs
UCD
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Drogheda United 1–2 UCD
The model makes it 28% Drogheda United, 27% draw, 45% UCD — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Drogheda United 1.18, UCD 1.62.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,630 settled matches.
Edge to UCD: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 3 November 2026. Drogheda United's rating is built from 72 League of Ireland Premier Division matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; UCD's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 542 matches.
Key facts
- Drogheda United have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Galway United.
- Last 6 meetings: Drogheda United 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 January 2026, ended Drogheda United 1–1 UCD.
Other predictions for 7 Nov
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Drogheda United vs UCD
Has the model earned this number?
UCD at 45%: of 2,625 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.8% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Drogheda United vs UCD
Drogheda United
Premier Division
- W2-0Galway United30 October 2026
- L1-3away to Waterford23 October 2026
- W2-0Derry City16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers8 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bohemians18 September 2026
UCD
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- Drogheda United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Drogheda United vs UCD
- 20 January 2026Drogheda United 1–1 UCDFriendlies Clubs
- 1 September 2023Drogheda United 3–0 UCDPremier Division
- 14 July 2023UCD 1–3 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 26 May 2023Drogheda United 3–1 UCDPremier Division
- 10 March 2023UCD 0–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 21 October 2022UCD 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
Leading scorers: Drogheda United and UCD
Drogheda United
GoalsAssists
- M. Doyle101
- B. Kavanagh65
UCD
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives UCD the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Drogheda United against 1.62 for UCD. Drogheda United's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.66 for UCD.
How the model reaches 45% for UCD to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for UCD to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Drogheda United's ratings add 7 points and UCD's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Drogheda United's ratings37%+7
- UCD's ratings45%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.