Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Anderlecht
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 Anderlecht
The model makes it 42% Dinamo Zagreb, 27% draw, 31% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.81, Anderlecht 1.38.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Zagreb are 19th on 1 point from 1 game; Anderlecht are 23rd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Anderlecht have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lyon.
- Last 2 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 December 2018, ended Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 Anderlecht.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb
- D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
Anderlecht
- L1-2Lyon16 September 2026
- W3-0Kairat Almaty27 August 2026
- W3-0away to Kairat Almaty20 August 2026
- W3-2PAOK13 August 2026
- W1-0away to PAOK6 August 2026
What these results say
- Anderlecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Anderlecht won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Anderlecht had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht
- 13 December 2018Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 AnderlechtUEFA Europa League
- 4 October 2018Anderlecht 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb
No league goals yet this season.
Anderlecht
- M. CvetkoviÄ1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.8 for Anderlecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.38 for Anderlecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.06 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Anderlecht rate 0.94 and 1.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 1.38 for Anderlecht. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.03 for Anderlecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Zagreb at home · Anderlecht away
League matches only, this season — Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL, Anderlecht in the Jupiler Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Dinamo Zagreb 7 in the HNL, Anderlecht 7 in the Jupiler Pro League.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Anderlecht have let in 0 there.
Anderlecht score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Dinamo Zagreb have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Zagreb
- at NK Slaven Belupo17 Oct · HNLwin 54%
- vs NEC Nijmegen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- vs HNK Rijeka24 Oct · HNLwin 50%
Anderlecht
- at Jagiellonia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 34%
- at Gent25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs KVC Westerlo31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.