1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Beşiktaş
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Beşiktaş
The model makes it 39% 1899 Hoffenheim, 27% draw, 34% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72, Beşiktaş 1.51.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- 1899 Hoffenheim are 29th on 0 points from 1 game; Beşiktaş are 4th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to SC Paderborn 07.
- Beşiktaş have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Marseille.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
1899 Hoffenheim
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
Beşiktaş
- W4-1Marseille17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kauno Žalgiris27 August 2026
- W3-0Kauno Žalgiris20 August 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové13 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hradec Králové6 August 2026
What these results say
- Beşiktaş won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş
1899 Hoffenheim
No league goals yet this season.
Beşiktaş
- V. Černý1 goal
- I. Fakili1 goal
- A. Murillo1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1899 Hoffenheim carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.9 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.51 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.06 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 1.09 and 0.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Beşiktaş, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.51 for Beşiktaş. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.98 for Beşiktaş.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1899 Hoffenheim at home · Beşiktaş away
League matches only, this season — 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, Beşiktaş in the Süper Lig. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: 1899 Hoffenheim 4 in the Bundesliga, Beşiktaş 6 in the Süper Lig.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
1899 Hoffenheim
- at Borussia Mönchengladbach18 Oct · Bundesligawin 40%
- vs Lyon22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen25 Oct · Bundesligawin 28%
- at Werder Bremen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 37%
Beşiktaş
- at Trabzonspor19 Oct · Süper Ligwin 32%
- vs Crystal Palace22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 49%
- vs Başakşehir26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 45%
- at Kasımpaşa1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.