Ferencvarosi TC
vs
Plzen
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Plzen
The model makes it 36% Ferencvarosi TC, 29% draw, 35% Plzen — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 1.46, Plzen 1.41.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Ferencvarosi TC and Plzen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ferencvarosi TC are 6th on 3 points from 1 game; Plzen are 34th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Celtic.
- Plzen are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Slavia Praha.
- Last 5 meetings: Plzen 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 September 2025, ended Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Plzen.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
Ferencvarosi TC
- W3-1away to Celtic17 September 2026
- W4-0Trabzonspor27 August 2026
- W1-0away to Trabzonspor20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze13 August 2026
- W1-0Gornik Zabrze5 August 2026
Plzen
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise17 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Crvena Zvezda20 August 2026
What these results say
- Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
- 25 September 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 PlzenUEFA Europa League
- 20 February 2025Plzen 3–0 Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League
- 13 February 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 PlzenUEFA Europa League
- 25 January 2024Ferencvarosi TC 1–3 PlzenFriendlies Clubs
- 16 January 2023Plzen 0–0 Ferencvarosi TCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Plzen
Ferencvarosi TC
- B. Yusuf1 goal2 assists
- K. Zachariassen1 goal1 assist
- D. Arzani1 goal
Plzen
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ferencvarosi TC carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.84 for Plzen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.41 for Plzen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.77 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plzen rate 1.10 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 1.41 for Plzen. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.14 for Plzen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ferencvarosi TC at home · Plzen away
League matches only, this season — Ferencvarosi TC in the NB I, Plzen in the Czech Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Ferencvarosi TC 7 in the NB I, Plzen 9 in the Czech Liga.
Plzen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Ferencvarosi TC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ferencvarosi TC
- at Kisvarda FC18 Oct · NB Iwin 44%
- vs Torreense22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
- vs MTK Budapest24 Oct · NB Iwin 52%
- vs Paks31 Oct · NB Iwin 49%
Plzen
- at FK Jablonec18 Oct · Czech Ligawin 42%
- vs Levski Sofia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 43%
- vs Pardubice25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 51%
- at Baník Ostrava1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.