Bournemouth
vs
Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Bournemouth 2–0 Sturm Graz
The model makes it 55% Bournemouth, 26% draw, 19% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Bournemouth 2.06, Sturm Graz 0.79.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bournemouth are 10th on 3 points from 1 game; Sturm Graz are 17th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Bournemouth have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Liverpool.
- Sturm Graz have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Red Bull Salzburg.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Bournemouth
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
Sturm Graz
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.61 for Sturm Graz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Bournemouth and 0.79 for Sturm Graz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.08 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sturm Graz rate 0.71 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Bournemouth against 0.79 for Sturm Graz. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.08/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.15 for Sturm Graz.
Season stats
Bournemouth at home · Sturm Graz away
League matches only, this season — Bournemouth in the Premier League, Sturm Graz in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bournemouth 5 in the Premier League, Sturm Graz 7 in the Bundesliga.
Bournemouth score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Sturm Graz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bournemouth
- vs Sunderland18 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs AC Milan22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
- at Manchester United25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Leeds31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Sturm Graz
- vs Grazer AK18 Oct · Bundesligawin 53%
- vs Marseille22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
- vs Ried25 Oct · Bundesligawin 49%
- at Wolfsberger AC1 Nov · Bundesligawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.