Celje
vs
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Celje 0–1 Omonia Nicosia
The model makes it 25% Celje, 28% draw, 47% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celje 1.02, Omonia Nicosia 1.85.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Celje are 31st on 0 points from 1 game; Omonia Nicosia are 16th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Omonia Nicosia have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Celta Vigo.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Nicosia at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
Celje
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia
- W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026
- W4-2St. Truiden27 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Truiden20 August 2026
- W1-0Lincoln Red Imps FC13 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC6 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Nicosia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Nicosia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Celje and Omonia Nicosia
Celje
No league goals yet this season.
Omonia Nicosia
- J. Balkovec1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celje carry a model rating of 6.6 against 7.06 for Omonia Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Celje and 1.85 for Omonia Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celje rate 0.80 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Nicosia rate 1.16 and 0.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Celje against 1.85 for Omonia Nicosia. Celje's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.77 for Omonia Nicosia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Celje
- vs Red Bull Salzburg22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Sturm Graz5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
- at Ferencvarosi TC26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- at Ararat-Armenia21 Jan · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
Omonia Nicosia
- vs Olympiakos19 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 62%
- vs Benfica22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at AEK Larnaca26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs AEL31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.