Celta Vigo
vs
Juventus
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 0–1 Juventus
The model makes it 30% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 40% Juventus — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.03, Juventus 1.40.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Celta Vigo are 25th on 0 points from 1 game; Juventus are top on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Racing Santander.
- Juventus have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Atalanta.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Juventus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Juventus
Celta Vigo
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
Juventus
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Juventus
Celta Vigo
No league goals yet this season.
Juventus
- R. Kolo Muani1 goal1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.88 against 7.18 for Juventus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.40 for Juventus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 0.91 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventus rate 1.32 and 0.68.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.40 for Juventus. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.68 for Juventus.
Season stats
Celta Vigo at home · Juventus away
League matches only, this season — Celta Vigo in the La Liga, Juventus in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Celta Vigo 7 in the La Liga, Juventus 5 in the Serie A.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Juventus have let in 0 there.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Celta Vigo
- vs Alaves18 Oct · La Ligawin 41%
- at Celtic22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 33%
- vs Real Betis25 Oct · La Ligawin 33%
- at Rayo Vallecano1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
Juventus
- vs Lazio18 Oct · Serie Awin 45%
- vs Rennes22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 58%
- at Lecce25 Oct · Serie Awin 52%
- at Genoa28 Oct · Serie Awin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.