Jagiellonia
vs
Ararat-Armenia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Jagiellonia 2–0 Ararat-Armenia
The model makes it 64% Jagiellonia, 22% draw, 14% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 2.80, Ararat-Armenia 0.76.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Jagiellonia are 21st on 0 points from 1 game; Ararat-Armenia are 33rd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Jagiellonia have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Olympiakos Piraeus.
- Ararat-Armenia have won 1 of their last 3, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Sparta Praha.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 64% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia
Jagiellonia
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 199927 August 2026
- W4-0FC Iberia 199920 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rangers13 August 2026
- W2-1Rangers6 August 2026
Ararat-Armenia
- L1-4Sparta Praha16 September 2026
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova27 August 2026
- D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova20 August 2026
What these results say
- Jagiellonia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jagiellonia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia
Jagiellonia
- K. Szmyt1 goal
Ararat-Armenia
- Bruno Wilson1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.19 for Ararat-Armenia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for Jagiellonia and 0.76 for Ararat-Armenia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.87 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ararat-Armenia rate 0.52 and 1.94.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 0.76 for Ararat-Armenia. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.94 for Ararat-Armenia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Jagiellonia
- at Zaglebie Lubin18 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 32%
- vs Anderlecht22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
- vs Wisla Plock25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 47%
- at Wieczysta Kraków31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
Ararat-Armenia
- vs AZ Alkmaar22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 16%
- at Torreense5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 18%
- at Red Bull Salzburg26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 13%
- vs NEC Nijmegen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 22%
- vs Celje21 Jan · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.