Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gwangju FC 4-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Gwangju FC, 25% draw, 52% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ulsan Hyundai FC at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Line-ups
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 4T. van GrunsvenD
- 3Lee Min-GiD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 9Ha Seung-UnM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 6Ahn Young-KyuD
- 11H. FriðjónssonF
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 70Kim Woo-jinM
- 1Kim Kyeong-MinG
- 37Lee Yong-JickM
- 88Moon Min-seoM
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 17João PedroD
- 21Jo Hyeon-WooG
- 96Choi Seok-HyunD
- 15Jung Seung-HyunD
- 19Kim Young-GwonD
- 26Cho Hyun-TaekD
- 6D. BojanićM
- 55T. Oude KotteM
- 33Jang Si-YoungM
- 10Lee Dong-GyeongM
- 11Erick FariasM
- 99Yago CarielloF
- 72Back In-WooM
- 1Choi Ju-hoG
- 17Kang Sang-WooD
- 14Lee Jin-HyunM
- 24Lee Gyu-SungM
- 28Lee Jae-IkD
- 8Lee Hui-GyunM
- 66M. TrojakD
- 2Yoon Jong-GyuD
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Gwangju FC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Jeonbuk Motors20 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang13 September 2026
- L0-1Jeju United FC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC6 September 2026
- L2-5FC Seoul30 August 2026
Ulsan Hyundai FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to FC Anyang19 September 2026
- W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Gwangju FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 35 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
- 5 July 2026Gwangju FC 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 19 April 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 5–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 22 November 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 18 October 2025Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 July 2025Gwangju FC 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCFA Cup
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Ulsan Hyundai FC
GoalsAssists
- Yago Cariello131
- Lee Dong-Gyeong1010
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gwangju FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 4–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Ulsan Hyundai FC at 52% and given a win for Gwangju FC 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Yago Cariello Ribeiro 30' for Ulsan Hyundai FC, Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua 36' for Gwangju FC, John Iredale 39' for Gwangju FC, Kim Young-Gwon 43' for Ulsan Hyundai FC, Shin Chang-moo 66' for Gwangju FC, Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua 77' for Gwangju FC, Yago Cariello Ribeiro (penalty) 90+7' for Ulsan Hyundai FC.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ulsan Hyundai FC a 96.8% chance to finish in the top four: 100.0% after a win, 97.0% after a draw, 89.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.4%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Gwangju FC v Ulsan Hyundai FC has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 26% / 27% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 23% / 25% / 52%: the biggest move is Ulsan Hyundai FC's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Gwangju FC win23%▼ −3
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Ulsan Hyundai FC win52%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.