Gwangju FC
vs
Ulsan Hyundai FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gwangju FC 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC
The model makes it 26% Gwangju FC, 27% draw, 47% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.09, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.90.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Gwangju FC
- D2-2away to Jeonbuk Motors20 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang13 September 2026
- L0-1Jeju United FC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC6 September 2026
- L2-5FC Seoul30 August 2026
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- L1-2away to FC Anyang19 September 2026
- W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Gwangju FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 15 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 40 | +5 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC
Gwangju FC
No player in K League 1's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Lee Dong-Gyeong7 goals5 assists
- Yago Cariello7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gwangju FC carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.5 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Gwangju FC and 1.90 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gwangju FC rate 0.51 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.75 and 1.51.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Gwangju FC against 1.9 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Gwangju FC's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.51 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.