FK Jablonec
vs
Baník Ostrava
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 39% FK Jablonec, 26% draw, 35% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.44, Baník Ostrava 1.35.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Jablonec
- W1-0Slovácko9 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
- W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
Baník Ostrava
- W1-0Artis16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové9 August 2026
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 | Baník Ostrava | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava
- 11 April 2026FK Jablonec 4–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 8 November 2025Baník Ostrava 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 27 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 9 April 2025FK Jablonec 0–1 Baník OstravaCup
- 23 November 2024FK Jablonec 3–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 28 July 2024Baník Ostrava 1–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.72 for Baník Ostrava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Jablonec W-W-W; Baník Ostrava W-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.35 for Baník Ostrava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.76 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baník Ostrava rate 0.75 and 1.00.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.35 for Baník Ostrava. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1 for Baník Ostrava.