FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% FK Jablonec, 29% draw, 27% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Jablonec at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava
Line-ups
- 99K. MihelakG
- 15D. PavlovićD
- 4N. TekijaškiD
- 57F. NovákD
- 7V. TchanturishviliM
- 25S. NebylaM
- 13R. SedláčekM
- 21M. PolidarM
- 17S. AlioumM
- 9A. RůsekM
- 24D. HollýF
- 18M. CedidlaD
- 19J. ChramostaF
- 1J. HanušG
- 44L. JawoF
- 16H. AhlM
- 6N. OkekeM
- 20J. SlámaD
- 23E. SobolD
- 14D. SoučekD
- 23M. JedličkaG
- 44Y. SkybaD
- 37M. ChalušD
- 42J. MíčekD
- 34A. BeweneM
- 5J. BoulaM
- 8A. TraoréM
- 95D. HolzerM
- 7D. GilbertM
- 15V. JurečkaM
- 28F. KubalaF
- 22V. SkrkonF
- 19F. ŠanclM
- 83R. NoghaM
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 81M. KmeťD
- 17M. FrydrychD
- 16M. DyachukD
- 1V. BudinskýG
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava
FK Jablonec
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
Baník Ostrava
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava
- 9 September 2026FK Jablonec 3–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 11 April 2026FK Jablonec 4–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 8 November 2025Baník Ostrava 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 27 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 9 April 2025FK Jablonec 0–1 Baník OstravaCup
- 23 November 2024FK Jablonec 3–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.