Club Sp. San Lorenzo
vs
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Libertad Asuncion
The model makes it 21% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 53% Libertad Asuncion — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.91, Libertad Asuncion 1.76.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,420 settled matches.
One-sided: Libertad Asuncion are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's rating is built from 15 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Libertad Asuncion's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 4 points from 15 games; Libertad Asuncion are 5th on 27 points from 15 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sportivo Trinidense.
- Last 6 meetings: Libertad Asuncion 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 August 2026, ended Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad Asuncion at 53% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 1,073 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Trinidense10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani3 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Recoleta28 September 2026
- L0-3Olimpia20 September 2026
Libertad Asuncion
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
- D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026
- L0-1Olimpia28 September 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano19 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 4 |
| 5 | Libertad Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Libertad Asuncion
Chance to finish in the top four · 70% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
- 24 August 2026Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 May 2026Libertad Asuncion 5–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 2 March 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–7 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 20 September 2023Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 Libertad AsuncionCopa Paraguay
- 27 July 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 Libertad AsuncionCopa Paraguay
- 20 November 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Libertad Asuncion
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera152
- I. Ramirez33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club Sp. San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.51 for Libertad Asuncion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.91 goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.76 for Libertad Asuncion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo rate 0.38 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Libertad Asuncion rate 0.74 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Sp. San Lorenzo a 0% chance of the title and Libertad Asuncion 6.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo against 1.76 for Libertad Asuncion. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.47 for Libertad Asuncion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home · Libertad Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 15, Libertad Asuncion 15.
Libertad Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Club Sp. San Lorenzo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- at Nacional Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 7%
- vs Rubio NU15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 32%
- at 2 de Mayo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 14%
- vs Sportivo Ameliano25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 27%
Libertad Asuncion
- vs Cerro Porteno8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- vs Nacional Asuncion15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 31%
- at Rubio NU18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
- vs 2 de Mayo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.