Clausura - 16 · 23 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Rubio NU vs Club Guarani Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio La Arboleda, Asuncion

Our model says: Rubio NU 0–1 Club Guarani

The model makes it 32% Rubio NU, 29% draw, 39% Club Guarani — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Rubio NU 1.20, Club Guarani 1.39.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.

Edge to Club Guarani: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Rubio NU's rating is built from 15 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Guarani's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Rubio NU are 10th on 13 points from 15 games; Club Guarani are 6th on 22 points from 15 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Rubio NU have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Deportivo Recoleta.
  • Club Guarani are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Nacional Asuncion.
  • Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Club Guarani 2–3 Rubio NU.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rubio NU vs Club Guarani

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rubio NU win Draw Club Guarani win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Rubio NU first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 37%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club Guarani at 39% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rubio NU vs Club Guarani

Rubio NU

  • L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
  • D0-0Olimpia11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026
  • D2-22 de Mayo26 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Cerro Porteno19 September 2026

Club Guarani

  • L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
  • D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Sportivo Trinidense18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rubio NU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Rubio NU153481525-1013
6Club Guarani155731614+222

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Rubio NU

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today

Win 47%
Draw 64%
Defeat 72%

Club Guarani

Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today

Win 15%
Draw 5%
Defeat 3%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Club Guarani

  • 15 August 2026Club Guarani 2–3 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 1 April 2026Rubio NU 0–2 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 1 February 2026Club Guarani 4–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 12 November 2017Club Guarani 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 1 September 2017Rubio NU 0–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 18 June 2017Club Guarani 2–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Club Guarani

Rubio NU

GoalsAssists

  • R. Ruiz Díaz32

Club Guarani

GoalsAssists

  • S. Zaracho31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Rubio NU carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.49 for Club Guarani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Rubio NU and 1.39 for Club Guarani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Rubio NU rate 0.57 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Guarani rate 0.62 and 1.29.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubio NU a 0% chance of the title and Club Guarani 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rubio NU against 1.39 for Club Guarani. Rubio NU's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.29 for Club Guarani.

Season stats

Rubio NUClub Guarani
15Matches15
3W 4D 8LRecord5W 7D 3L
15 1.0 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game
25 1.7 per gameGoals conceded14 0.9 per game
2 of 15Clean sheets6 of 15
7 of 15Failed to score3 of 15
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
34 2.3 per gameYellow cards25 1.7 per game
4Red cards0
4-4-2 6×Usual shape4-1-4-1 10×

Rubio NU at home · Club Guarani away

7Played7
1W 4D 2LRecord3W 4D 0L
7–8Goals for – against6–3
2 of 7Clean sheets5 of 7

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Rubio NU 15, Club Guarani 15.

Rubio NU scored 014432
Club Guarani conceded 022532
Club Guarani scored 122235
Rubio NU conceded 045474

Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Rubio NU have let in 4 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Rubio NU

Club Guarani

  • vs 2 de Mayo30 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 46%
  • at Sportivo Ameliano8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
  • vs Olimpia15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
  • at Deportivo Recoleta18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
  • at Cerro Porteno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 27%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.