Petrojet
vs
Smouha SC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Petrojet 1–0 Smouha SC
The model makes it 39% Petrojet, 31% draw, 30% Smouha SC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Petrojet 1.18, Smouha SC 0.99.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Petrojet are 9th on 8 points from 6 games; Smouha SC are 13th on 7 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Petrojet are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Wadi Degla.
- Smouha SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ghazl El Mehalla.
- Last 6 meetings: Petrojet 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 August 2025, ended Smouha SC 0–0 Petrojet.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Petrojet vs Smouha SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Petrojet at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Petrojet vs Smouha SC
Petrojet
- D2-2Wadi Degla13 October 2026
- W2-1away to El Gouna FC16 September 2026
- W2-1Al Masry7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zamalek SC31 August 2026
- L2-3El Geish26 August 2026
Smouha SC
- W1-0Ghazl El Mehalla12 October 2026
- W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahly3 September 2026
- D0-0Asyut Petrol26 August 2026
What these results say
- Petrojet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Petrojet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Petrojet had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Smouha SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Petrojet
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Smouha SC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Petrojet vs Smouha SC
- 31 August 2025Smouha SC 0–0 PetrojetPremier League
- 18 March 2025Smouha SC 1–2 PetrojetLeague Cup
- 11 February 2025Petrojet 0–1 Smouha SCPremier League
- 21 May 2019Smouha SC 2–0 PetrojetPremier League
- 26 November 2018Petrojet 1–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 2 February 2018Petrojet 2–1 Smouha SCPremier League
Leading scorers: Petrojet and Smouha SC
Petrojet
GoalsAssists
- Mostafa El Badry31
- Ahmed Bahbah31
Smouha SC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Petrojet carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.31 for Smouha SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Petrojet and 0.99 for Smouha SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Petrojet rate 0.75 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Smouha SC rate 0.45 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Petrojet a 0.1% chance of the title and Smouha SC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Petrojet the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Petrojet against 0.99 for Smouha SC. Petrojet's attack/defence rating is 0.75/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.4 for Smouha SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Petrojet at home · Smouha SC away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Petrojet 6, Smouha SC 6.
Petrojet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Smouha SC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Petrojet
- at Ghazl El Mehalla25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs Pyramids FC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Masr14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Future FC24 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Smouha SC
- vs National Bank of Egypt24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Abu Qair Semad10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Zamalek SC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Pyramids FC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.