Chico
vs
Bucaramanga
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Chico 0–1 Bucaramanga
The model makes it 24% Chico, 30% draw, 46% Bucaramanga — fair odds of 4.17, 3.33 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Chico 0.85, Bucaramanga 1.38.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Bucaramanga are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chico are 14th on 12 points from 12 games; Bucaramanga are 3rd on 24 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Chico have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cucuta.
- Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Bucaramanga 5–0 Chico.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chico vs Bucaramanga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chico vs Bucaramanga
Chico
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
Bucaramanga
- D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
What these results say
- Chico failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chico
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Bucaramanga
Chance to finish in the top four · 71% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chico vs Bucaramanga
- 12 April 2026Bucaramanga 5–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 12 July 2025Bucaramanga 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 10 June 2025Bucaramanga 3–2 ChicoCopa Colombia
- 24 January 2025Chico 1–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 6 November 2024Chico 1–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 20 April 2024Bucaramanga 2–3 ChicoPrimera A
Leading scorers: Chico and Bucaramanga
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons115
- E. Batalla115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chico carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.63 for Bucaramanga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Chico and 1.38 for Bucaramanga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chico rate 0.48 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bucaramanga rate 0.79 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chico a 0% chance of the title and Bucaramanga 15.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Chico against 1.38 for Bucaramanga. Chico's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.22 for Bucaramanga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chico at home · Bucaramanga away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Chico 30, Bucaramanga 30.
Chico score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Bucaramanga have let in 5 there.
Bucaramanga score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Chico have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Chico
- vs Junior28 Oct · Primera Awin 28%
- at Deportivo Cali2 Nov · Primera Awin 13%
- vs Internacional de Bogota8 Nov · Primera Awin 36%
Bucaramanga
- at Santa Fe27 Oct · Primera Awin 26%
- vs Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · Primera Awin 59%
- vs Atletico Nacional3 Nov · Primera Awin 39%
- at Jaguares8 Nov · Primera Awin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.