Cucuta
vs
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Cucuta 1–0 Deportivo Pereira
The model makes it 42% Cucuta, 30% draw, 28% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cucuta 1.45, Deportivo Pereira 0.98.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cucuta at 42% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira
Cucuta
- L0-3away to Deportivo Cali19 September 2026
- L1-2Millonarios14 September 2026
- D2-2Deportivo Pasto5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes Tolima1 September 2026
- W1-0Alianza Valledupar26 August 2026
Deportivo Pereira
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas18 September 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga13 September 2026
- D1-1Millonarios6 September 2026
- L0-3Independiente Medellin4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pasto31 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cucuta | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira
- 24 March 2026Deportivo Pereira 2–2 CucutaPrimera A
- 2 February 2020Deportivo Pereira 2–0 CucutaPrimera A
- 21 August 2018Deportivo Pereira 0–1 CucutaPrimera B
- 21 March 2018Cucuta 2–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera B
- 30 July 2017Cucuta 0–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera B
- 30 May 2017Deportivo Pereira 1–2 CucutaPrimera B
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cucuta carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.24 for Deportivo Pereira. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Cucuta and 0.98 for Deportivo Pereira. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cucuta rate 0.58 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pereira rate 0.51 and 1.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cucuta the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cucuta against 0.98 for Deportivo Pereira. Cucuta's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.73 for Deportivo Pereira.