Ghazl El Mehalla
vs
Zamalek SC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Ghazl El Mehalla 1–2 Zamalek SC
The model makes it 34% Ghazl El Mehalla, 29% draw, 37% Zamalek SC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ghazl El Mehalla 1.41, Zamalek SC 1.51.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Ghazl El Mehalla wins, grey are draws, red are Zamalek SC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zamalek SC at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC
Ghazl El Mehalla
- L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026
- D0-0Enppi1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Future FC27 August 2026
- L0-3Pyramids FC22 August 2026
Zamalek SC
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
- W2-1Petrojet31 August 2026
- W3-0away to National Bank of Egypt26 August 2026
- D0-0Al Ittihad Alexandria21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Ghazl El Mehalla and Zamalek SC
Ghazl El Mehalla
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Zamalek SC
- Hossam Ashraf2 goals
- Mohamed El Sayed1 goals1 assists
- Chico Banza1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ghazl El Mehalla carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.4 for Zamalek SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.51 for Zamalek SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ghazl El Mehalla rate 0.55 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zamalek SC rate 0.64 and 1.58.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zamalek SC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla against 1.51 for Zamalek SC. Ghazl El Mehalla's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.58 for Zamalek SC.