Viborg
vs
FC Nordsjaelland
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Viborg 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland
The model makes it 38% Viborg, 29% draw, 33% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Viborg 1.46, FC Nordsjaelland 1.25.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Viborg vs FC Nordsjaelland
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Viborg wins, grey are draws, red are FC Nordsjaelland wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viborg at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Viborg vs FC Nordsjaelland
Viborg
- D1-1away to Silkeborg13 September 2026
- L0-2Lyngby4 September 2026
- W3-2away to AC Horsens28 August 2026
- W4-0FC Copenhagen23 August 2026
- W2-1Aarhus14 August 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
- W3-1Brondby30 August 2026
- W3-0away to Sonderjyske23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Viborg | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | FC Nordsjaelland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Viborg vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 26 April 2026Viborg 1–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 19 April 2026FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 ViborgSuperliga
- 1 March 2026Viborg 2–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 25 August 2025FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 ViborgSuperliga
- 3 November 2024FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 ViborgSuperliga
- 20 September 2024Viborg 3–2 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
Leading scorers: Viborg and FC Nordsjaelland
Viborg
- A. Beck3 goals
- M. Søndergaard2 goals2 assists
- C. Nouck2 goals1 assists
FC Nordsjaelland
- H. Boe Rasmussen3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Viborg carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.61 for FC Nordsjaelland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Viborg and 1.25 for FC Nordsjaelland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viborg rate 0.71 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.78 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Nordsjaelland, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viborg a 1.7% chance of the title and FC Nordsjaelland 9.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viborg the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Viborg against 1.25 for FC Nordsjaelland. Viborg's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.26 for FC Nordsjaelland.