Vitoria
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Vitoria 0–1 Santos
The model makes it 32% Vitoria, 29% draw, 39% Santos — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.21, Santos 1.36.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Santos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vitoria's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Santos's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,101 matches.
Key facts
- Vitoria are 15th on 38 points from 34 games; Santos are 9th on 47 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Vitoria have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Fluminense.
- Santos are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to RB Bragantino.
- Last 6 meetings: Santos 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Santos 3–1 Vitoria.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitoria vs Santos
Has the model earned this number?
Santos at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vitoria vs Santos
Vitoria
Serie A
- L0-3Fluminense6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Coritiba31 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Paranaense24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
Santos
Serie A
- L1-2away to RB Bragantino2 November 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras28 October 2026
- D1-1Bahia25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fluminense18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Santos
- 30 May 2026Santos 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 21 October 2025Santos 0–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 25 May 2025Vitoria 0–1 SantosSerie A
- 6 October 2018Vitoria 0–1 SantosSerie A
- 3 June 2018Santos 5–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 16 October 2017Santos 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Santos
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Vitoria against 1.36 for Santos. Vitoria's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.12 for Santos.
How the model reaches 39% for Santos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Santos to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Vitoria's ratings add 6 points and Santos's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Both sides at this match's level27%−1
- Vitoria's ratings33%+6
- Santos's ratings39%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vitoria at home · Santos away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Vitoria 34, Santos 34.
Vitoria score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Santos have let in 6 there.
Santos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Vitoria have let in 12 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Vitoria
- at Vasco da Gama3 Dec · Serie Awin 20%
Santos
- vs Botafogo3 Dec · Serie Awin 53%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.