12 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

Estudiantes La Plata vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 2-1 Platense.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Estudiantes La Plata, 27% draw, 31% Platense — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estudiantes La Plata5%Draw91%Platense4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Valente Pierani
13'
15'
Ivan Gómez
⚽A. Gaichassist: E. Cetre
19'
24'
⚽G. Maineroassist: M. Amarfil
🔁V. Pieraniout: L. Gonzalez Pirez
46'
49'
Maximiliano Amarfil
José Sosa
50'
Santiago Núñez
52'
🔁J. Sosaout: J. Correa
59'
🔁Perez Fabricioout: J. Burgos
59'
Leandro González Pírez
60'
67'
🔁J. Saboridoout: A. Lagos
73'
Agustín Lagos
75'
🔁G. Lencinaout: B. Sepulveda
76'
🔁G. Togniout: J. Gauto
🔁J. Eliasout: A. Castro
80'
🔁E. Cetreout: G. Carrillo
80'
83'
🔁T. Silvaout: C. Ingenthron
83'
🔁F. Zapiolaout: N. Lopez
⚽G. Carrillo
90'

Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Platense

57%Possession43%
16Shots12
10On target2
2Corners2
1.08xG0.78

Goals against chances

Estudiantes La Plata2 from 1.08 xGmore than the chances were worth
Platense1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estudiantes La Plata 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. IacovichG
  • 20E. MezaD
  • 4S. NunezD
  • 35V. PieraniD
  • 13G. BenedettiD
  • 8Gabriel NevesM
  • 39J. EliasM
  • 29Perez FabricioM
  • 7J. SosaM
  • 18E. CetreM
  • 19A. GaichF
Substitutes
  • 16F. MusleraG
  • 14L. Gonzalez PirezD
  • 40E. MancusoD
  • 36J. PereyraD
  • 22A. CastroM
  • 21L. PioviM
  • 34M. MonsalveM
  • 32J. CorreaF
  • 28B. AguirreF
Coach: Alexander Medina
Platense 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. CozzaniG
  • 25J. SaboridoD
  • 31Victor CuestaD
  • 34M. MendiaD
  • 3T. SilvaD
  • 5I. GomezM
  • 15M. AmarfilM
  • 16G. TogniM
  • 7G. MaineroM
  • 10F. ZapiolaM
  • 99G. LencinaF
Substitutes
  • 37S. Cambiasso
  • 13I. VazquezD
  • 4A. LagosD
  • 38C. IngenthronD
  • 24M. BarriosM
  • 17F. BussioM
  • 18B. MerliniF
  • 79B. SepulvedaF
  • 33J. GautoF
Coach: Martin Palermo

Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Platense

Estudiantes La Plata

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield6 September 2026
  • D0-0Newell's Old Boys31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin23 August 2026
  • W4-0Gimnasia La Plata15 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Deportivo Riestra8 August 2026

Platense

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Defensa Y Justicia31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Barracas Central23 August 2026
  • D1-1Boca Juniors16 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Independiente9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Estudiantes La Plata failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Estudiantes La Plata failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had two goals or fewer.
  • Platense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Platense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Platense had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Estudiantes La Plata144281718-114
12Platense143561420-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Platense

  • 3 May 2026Platense 0–2 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 December 2025Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 PlatenseTrofeo de Campeones de la Superliga
  • 15 September 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 March 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–2 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 18 October 2023Platense 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 27 April 2023Platense 1–2 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Estudiantes La Plata vs Platense record →

The result against the call

Estudiantes La Plata beat Platense 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Estudiantes La Plata at 42%. The goals: A. Gaich 19' for Estudiantes La Plata, G. Mainero 24' for Platense, G. Carrillo 90' for Estudiantes La Plata. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.78.

How the call on Estudiantes La Plata v Platense has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Estudiantes La Plata's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Estudiantes La Plata win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Platense win31%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.