Dalian Zhixing
vs
Beijing Guoan
Super League prediction
The model makes it 21% Dalian Zhixing, 20% draw, 59% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 4.76, 5.00 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Dalian Zhixing 1.38, Beijing Guoan 2.38.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dalian Zhixing
- W1-0Shenyang Urban8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye31 July 2026
- L2-3away to Hangzhou Greentown26 July 2026
- W3-1Shandong Luneng18 July 2026
- W3-2Wuhan Three Towns4 July 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W4-0Sichuan Jiuniu7 August 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chengdu Better City26 July 2026
- D1-1Shenyang Urban17 July 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dalian Zhixing | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
- 6 May 2026Beijing Guoan 3–0 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 26 September 2025Beijing Guoan 4–2 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 21 June 2025Dalian Zhixing 1–1 Beijing GuoanFA Cup
- 5 May 2025Dalian Zhixing 0–2 Beijing GuoanSuper League
Leading scorers
Dalian Zhixing
No league goals recorded yet.
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning10 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dalian Zhixing carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.69 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dalian Zhixing W-W-L-D-W; Beijing Guoan W-D-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 2.38 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dalian Zhixing rate 0.63 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.84 and 1.16.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dalian Zhixing, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dalian Zhixing a 0.1% chance of the title and Beijing Guoan 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing against 2.38 for Beijing Guoan. Dalian Zhixing's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.16 for Beijing Guoan.