Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Super League prediction & result
Final score: Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Dalian Zhixing, 32% draw, 36% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
Line-ups
- 20Liu WeiguoG
- 38Lu ZhuoyiD
- 24Bi JinhaoD
- 2M. TraoreD
- 22W. MaoD
- 40Liao JintaoM
- 4I. AlimiM
- 9P. DelgadoM
- 10N. StanciuM
- 27Yang MingruiM
- 30F. AcheampongF
- 26Huang ZihaoG
- 33Cao HaiqingD
- 12Feng BoxuanD
- 15Wen JiabaoD
- 28Sun KangboD
- 5Peng ShunjieD
- 21Lu PengM
- 7Luo JingM
- 8Zhang HuachenM
- 34Hou SenG
- 21Yue Tze-NamD
- 27Wang GangD
- 5G. RamosD
- 26Bai YangD
- 37Cao YongjingM
- 23DawhanM
- 7SerginhoM
- 17Yang LiyuM
- 29F. AbreuF
- 9Zhang YuningF
- 31S. LiuG
- 4Li LeiD
- 30Fan ShuangjieD
- 47Deng JiefuD
- 10Zhang XizheM
- 18Wang YuM
- 36Jia FeifanM
- 24Abdugheni AbduhamitD
- 41Cheng XiM
Form going into Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
Dalian Zhixing
- W1-0away to Chongqing Tongliang Long23 August 2026
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG19 August 2026
- L1-3away to Yunnan Yukun15 August 2026
Beijing Guoan
- D3-3Yunnan Yukun22 August 2026
- W3-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 August 2026
- W4-2away to Tianjin Teda15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
- 6 May 2026Beijing Guoan 3–0 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 26 September 2025Beijing Guoan 4–2 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 21 June 2025Dalian Zhixing 1–1 Beijing GuoanFA Cup
- 5 May 2025Dalian Zhixing 0–2 Beijing GuoanSuper League
Leading scorers: Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan
Dalian Zhixing
- N. Stanciu9 goals4 assists
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning12 goals6 assists
- Fábio Abreu9 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.