Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng Super League prediction & result
Final score: Shanghai Shenhua 2-3 Shandong Luneng.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Shanghai Shenhua, 25% draw, 22% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shanghai Shenhua at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Xue QinghaoG
- 13W. ManafaD
- 6Li SongyiD
- 5Zhu ChenjieD
- 27Chan ShinichiD
- 19L. AsueM
- 17Gao TianyiM
- 15Wu XiM
- 30Xie PengfeiM
- 9Rafael RataoF
- 11Saulo MineiroF
- 24Ma ZhenG
- 39D. SunG
- 16Yang ZexiangD
- 26Yang ShuaiD
- 25Zhu YueD
- 2Wang ShilongD
- 3Jin ShunkaiD
- 38Wu QipengD
- 21Xu HaoyangM
- 1Yu JinyongG
- 2Yang RuiqiD
- 23P. AlvaroD
- 11Liu YangD
- 28Mijit MewlanM
- 34Yin JiaxiM
- 38Memet ImranM
- 29Chen PuM
- 9CryzanF
- 19ZecaF
- 10V. QazaishviliF
- 32Sun QihangG
- 36Liu QiweiG
- 35Huang ZhengyuD
- 5Zheng ZhengD
- 33Gao ZhunyiD
- 3Peng XiaoD
- 15Shi SongchenD
- 22Y. LiM
- 37Chen ZeshiM
Form going into Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng
Shanghai Shenhua
- W5-4away to Chengdu Better City22 August 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
- W4-1Henan Jianye15 August 2026
Shandong Luneng
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 31 |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng
Shanghai Shenhua
- Rafael Ratão15 goals1 assist
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan16 goals6 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.