Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG Super League prediction & result
Final score: Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Sichuan Jiuniu, 23% draw, 20% SHANGHAI SIPG — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sichuan Jiuniu at 57% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Peng PengG
- 16Tang MiaoD
- 15Yu RuiD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 20Z. XuanD
- 36E. KartsevM
- 2Tian YifanM
- 8T. ChowM
- 6Yao JunshengM
- 11A. AdemiM
- 10Dai Wai-TsunF
- 35Wei MinzheG
- 1J. JiG
- 49H. Zhang
- 25Zhao JianfeiD
- 56Wang YuhengM
- 14Li LongM
- 17Li NingM
- 19Zhang YufengM
- 39Yu MenghuiM
- 1Yan JunlingG
- 19Wang ZhenaoD
- 13Wei ZhenD
- 5Zhang LinpengD
- 32Li ShuaiD
- 8Jean ClaudeM
- 21O. MelendoM
- 49X. LiM
- 47Kuai JiwenM
- 17P. O. AmpemM
- 45LeonardoF
- 12Chen WeiG
- 4Wang ShenchaoD
- 28Yue XinD
- 22A. Yang
- 23Fu HuanD
- 3Browning TyiasD
- 33Liu ZhurunF
- 20Yang ShiyuanD
- 10Mateus VitalM
Form going into Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Sichuan Jiuniu
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
SHANGHAI SIPG
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon23 August 2026
- D1-1Dalian Zhixing19 August 2026
- W3-2away to Wuhan Three Towns14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 28 |
| 7 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 33 | +7 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG
- 21 July 2026SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Sichuan JiuniuFA Cup
- 6 May 2026SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 30 June 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–2 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 23 February 2025SHANGHAI SIPG 3–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 13 September 2024SHANGHAI SIPG 2–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 5 May 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–6 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
Leading scorers: Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals5 assists
SHANGHAI SIPG
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.