Sichuan Jiuniu
vs
SHANGHAI SIPG
Super League prediction
The model makes it 61% Sichuan Jiuniu, 18% draw, 21% SHANGHAI SIPG — fair odds of 1.64, 5.56 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.63, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.53.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sichuan Jiuniu
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
- W2-0Chongqing Tongliang Long2 August 2026
- L3-4away to Yunnan Yukun26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Wuhan Three Towns18 July 2026
- W3-0Qingdao Youth Island11 July 2026
SHANGHAI SIPG
- W3-2away to Chongqing Tongliang Long9 August 2026
- L0-1Shandong Luneng1 August 2026
- W2-0Shanghai Shenhua25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Yunnan Yukun17 July 2026
- L1-2away to Qingdao Youth Island4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
| 12 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG
- 21 July 2026SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Sichuan JiuniuFA Cup
- 6 May 2026SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 30 June 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–2 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 23 February 2025SHANGHAI SIPG 3–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 13 September 2024SHANGHAI SIPG 2–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 5 May 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–6 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
Leading scorers
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals4 assists
SHANGHAI SIPG
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sichuan Jiuniu carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.21 for SHANGHAI SIPG. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sichuan Jiuniu W-L-L-W-L; SHANGHAI SIPG L-D-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.63 goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.53 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.66 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.58 and 2.11.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.53 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.11 for SHANGHAI SIPG.