League A - 5 · 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Czech Republic vs Spain UEFA Nations League prediction

Stadion Letná, Prague
Referee: Nikola Dabanovic

Our model says: Czech Republic 0–2 Spain

The model makes it 10% Czech Republic, 18% draw, 72% Spain — fair odds of 10.00, 5.56 and 1.39.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).

Expected goals: Czech Republic 0.73, Spain 2.68.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Spain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Czech Republic's rating is built from its last 3 matches; Spain's from its last 6 matches.

Key facts

  • Czech Republic have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to England.
  • Spain are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Croatia.
  • Last 4 meetings: Spain 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Spain 3–1 Czechia.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Czech Republic vs Spain

49%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Czech Republic win Draw Spain win
  1. 0–212%
  2. 0–311%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 1–38%
  6. 0–47%
  7. 1–17%

Scores read Czech Republic first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Spain at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Czech Republic vs Spain

Czech Republic

No earlier matches on record this season.

Spain

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Croatia6 October 2026
  • W3-1Czech Republic3 October 2026
  • W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
  • W3-2away to England26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Spain won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Spain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Spain conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Czech Republic vs Spain

  • 3 October 2026Spain 3–1 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
  • 12 June 2022Spain 2–0 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
  • 5 June 2022Czechia 2–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
  • 13 June 2016Spain 1–0 CzechiaEuro Championship

Leading scorers: Czech Republic and Spain

Czech Republic

No leading scorers listed yet.

Spain

GoalsAssists

  • Lamine Yamal41
  • Mikel Merino31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Czech Republic Spain
0.98 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.73
1.24 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.55
0.73 Model expected goals (this match) 2.68

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Spain the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Czech Republic against 2.68 for Spain. Czech Republic's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.73/0.55 for Spain.

Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.

How the model reaches 72% for Spain to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spain to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Czech Republic's ratings add 20 points and Spain's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 72%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Czech Republic's ratings54%+20
  4. Spain's ratings72%+18

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Czech Republic

Spain

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.