Croatia
vs
Czech Republic
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Croatia 2–1 Czech Republic
The model makes it 56% Croatia, 24% draw, 20% Czech Republic — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Croatia 2.03, Czech Republic 1.03.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Croatia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Croatia's rating is built from its last 4 matches; Czech Republic's from its last 3 matches.
Key facts
- Croatia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Spain.
- Czech Republic have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to England.
- Last 5 meetings: Croatia 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Czechia 1–2 Croatia.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Croatia vs Czech Republic
Has the model earned this number?
Croatia at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Croatia vs Czech Republic
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Spain6 October 2026
- L0-7England3 October 2026
- L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Czech Republic26 September 2026
Czech Republic
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- Croatia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Croatia had three goals or more.
- Croatia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Croatia vs Czech Republic
- 26 September 2026Czechia 1–2 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
- 9 October 2025Czechia 0–0 CroatiaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 9 June 2025Croatia 5–1 CzechiaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 18 June 2021Croatia 1–1 CzechiaEuro Championship
- 17 June 2016Czechia 2–2 CroatiaEuro Championship
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Croatia the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Croatia against 1.03 for Czech Republic. Croatia's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.24 for Czech Republic.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 56% for Croatia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Croatia to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Croatia's ratings add 7 points and Czech Republic's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- Croatia's ratings46%+7
- Czech Republic's ratings56%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.