Cusco
vs
Sporting Cristal
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Cusco 2–1 Sporting Cristal
The model makes it 41% Cusco, 26% draw, 33% Sporting Cristal — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cusco 1.68, Sporting Cristal 1.45.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Cusco are 5th on 45 points from 28 games; Sporting Cristal are 9th on 41 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Cusco have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Alianza Lima.
- Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to UTC Cajamarca.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Sporting Cristal 2–2 Cusco.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cusco vs Sporting Cristal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cusco at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cusco vs Sporting Cristal
Cusco
- L1-2Alianza Lima11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Cajamarca19 September 2026
- L0-1FBC Melgar12 September 2026
- W2-0UCV Moquegua5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cienciano31 August 2026
Sporting Cristal
- W1-0away to UTC Cajamarca11 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau19 September 2026
- W2-1away to UCV Moquegua13 September 2026
- W5-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys30 August 2026
What these results say
- Cusco scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cusco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cusco | 28 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 45 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cusco
Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today
Sporting Cristal
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cusco vs Sporting Cristal
- 3 May 2026Sporting Cristal 2–2 CuscoPrimera División
- 14 December 2025Cusco 2–0 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 11 December 2025Sporting Cristal 1–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 14 September 2025Cusco 3–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 13 April 2025Sporting Cristal 1–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 22 September 2024Cusco 1–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
Leading scorers: Cusco and Sporting Cristal
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo162
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos93
- L. Iberico70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cusco carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.49 for Sporting Cristal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Cusco and 1.45 for Sporting Cristal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cusco rate 0.67 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Cristal rate 0.75 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cusco the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Cusco against 1.45 for Sporting Cristal. Cusco's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.54 for Sporting Cristal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cusco at home · Sporting Cristal away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Cusco 28, Sporting Cristal 28.
Sporting Cristal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Cusco have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cusco
- at Club Deportivo Los Chankas28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
- vs Sport Boys31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
- at Atletico Grau7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- vs ADT14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 58%
Sporting Cristal
- vs Alianza Lima28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- vs FC Cajamarca31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 62%
- at ADT7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
- vs Cienciano14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.