Juan Pablo II College
vs
Sport Boys
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Juan Pablo II College 1–0 Sport Boys
The model makes it 41% Juan Pablo II College, 28% draw, 31% Sport Boys — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Juan Pablo II College 1.48, Sport Boys 1.21.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Juan Pablo II College are 12th on 35 points from 28 games; Sport Boys are 10th on 38 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Juan Pablo II College are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Comerciantes Unidos.
- Sport Boys have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Alianza Atletico.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Sport Boys 1–1 Juan Pablo II College.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juan Pablo II College at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys
Juan Pablo II College
- D1-1away to Comerciantes Unidos10 October 2026
- W4-0UCV Moquegua20 September 2026
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca11 September 2026
- D1-1Alianza Lima6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 August 2026
Sport Boys
- L1-3Alianza Atletico11 October 2026
- D1-1away to FBC Melgar20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Garcilaso13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo5 September 2026
- W1-0Sporting Cristal30 August 2026
What these results say
- Juan Pablo II College went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sport Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 35 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys
- 26 April 2026Sport Boys 1–1 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
- 20 July 2025Juan Pablo II College 3–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
- 9 February 2025Sport Boys 1–0 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Juan Pablo II College carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.38 for Sport Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Juan Pablo II College and 1.21 for Sport Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juan Pablo II College rate 0.65 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sport Boys rate 0.53 and 1.40.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sport Boys, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juan Pablo II College the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College against 1.21 for Sport Boys. Juan Pablo II College's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.4 for Sport Boys.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juan Pablo II College at home · Sport Boys away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Juan Pablo II College 28, Sport Boys 28.
Juan Pablo II College score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Sport Boys have let in 4 there.
Sport Boys score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Juan Pablo II College have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Juan Pablo II College
- at Universitario25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Sport Huancayo28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
- at Alianza Atletico31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at FBC Melgar7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 20%
- vs Deportivo Garcilaso14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Sport Boys
- vs FC Cajamarca25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 51%
- at Universitario28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at Cusco31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs UTC Cajamarca7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Comerciantes Unidos14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.