FBC Melgar
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
Primera División prediction
Our model says: FBC Melgar 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso
The model makes it 41% FBC Melgar, 30% draw, 29% Deportivo Garcilaso — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FBC Melgar 1.34, Deportivo Garcilaso 1.02.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FBC Melgar are 4th on 47 points from 28 games; Deportivo Garcilaso are 3rd on 48 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Universitario.
- Deportivo Garcilaso have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sport Huancayo.
- Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Garcilaso 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 April 2026, ended Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 FBC Melgar.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FBC Melgar at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
- D2-2away to Universitario11 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Boys20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cusco12 September 2026
- W3-0ADT6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Grau1 September 2026
Deportivo Garcilaso
- L0-1Sport Huancayo10 October 2026
- W4-0Universitario19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys13 September 2026
- W4-2Atletico Grau6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alianza Lima30 August 2026
What these results say
- FBC Melgar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 47 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FBC Melgar
Chance to finish in the top four · 69% today
Deportivo Garcilaso
Chance to finish in the top four · 74% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
- 28 April 2026Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 19 September 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 18 April 2025FBC Melgar 1–2 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 3 November 2024FBC Melgar 1–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 25 May 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 1–3 FBC MelgarPrimera División
Leading scorers: FBC Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta136
- J. Vidales121
Deportivo Garcilaso
GoalsAssists
- L. da Silva113
- C. Olivares72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FBC Melgar carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.54 for Deportivo Garcilaso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for FBC Melgar and 1.02 for Deportivo Garcilaso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FBC Melgar rate 0.69 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Garcilaso rate 0.62 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Deportivo Garcilaso, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FBC Melgar a 0.2% chance of the title and Deportivo Garcilaso 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FBC Melgar the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FBC Melgar against 1.02 for Deportivo Garcilaso. FBC Melgar's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.19 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FBC Melgar at home · Deportivo Garcilaso away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: FBC Melgar 28, Deportivo Garcilaso 28.
FBC Melgar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Deportivo Garcilaso have let in 3 there.
Deportivo Garcilaso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); FBC Melgar have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FBC Melgar
- at UTC Cajamarca23 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 50%
- vs Comerciantes Unidos28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Sport Huancayo31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- vs Juan Pablo II College7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 57%
- at Alianza Atletico14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Deportivo Garcilaso
- vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas25 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 60%
- at Alianza Atletico28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
- at UTC Cajamarca31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- vs Comerciantes Unidos7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 55%
- at Juan Pablo II College14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.