Atletico Grau
vs
ADT
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Atletico Grau 1–0 ADT
The model makes it 49% Atletico Grau, 29% draw, 22% ADT — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Atletico Grau 1.43, ADT 0.78.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Atletico Grau: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atletico Grau are 13th on 33 points from 28 games; ADT are 16th on 26 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Atletico Grau have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- ADT have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FC Cajamarca.
- Last 6 meetings: ADT 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended ADT 1–0 Atletico Grau.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Grau vs ADT
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Grau at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Grau vs ADT
Atletico Grau
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas8 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Cristal19 September 2026
- W3-1Alianza Atletico13 September 2026
- L2-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso6 September 2026
- W1-0FBC Melgar1 September 2026
ADT
- D0-0FC Cajamarca10 October 2026
- W2-1Cienciano23 September 2026
- L0-2away to Alianza Lima19 September 2026
- L0-3away to FBC Melgar6 September 2026
- L1-3Sport Huancayo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Grau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 33 |
| 16 | ADT | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico Grau
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
ADT
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 74% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico Grau vs ADT
- 2 May 2026ADT 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 31 August 2025Atletico Grau 2–0 ADTPrimera División
- 15 February 2025ADT 4–3 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 4 August 2024ADT 1–2 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 25 February 2024Atletico Grau 2–2 ADTPrimera División
- 23 July 2023ADT 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
The two sides
Atletico Grau carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.16 for ADT. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Atletico Grau and 0.78 for ADT. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Grau rate 0.49 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ADT rate 0.45 and 1.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Grau the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Atletico Grau against 0.78 for ADT. Atletico Grau's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.8 for ADT.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Grau at home · ADT away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Atletico Grau 28, ADT 28.
Atletico Grau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); ADT have let in 9 there.
ADT score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Atletico Grau have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Grau
- at Cienciano28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Universitario31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Cusco7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- at UCV Moquegua14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
ADT
- vs UCV Moquegua28 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
- at Comerciantes Unidos31 Oct · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Sporting Cristal7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 27%
- at Cusco14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.