CSKA Sofia
vs
Monaco
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: CSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco
The model makes it 28% CSKA Sofia, 28% draw, 44% Monaco — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.20, Monaco 1.82.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CSKA Sofia are 2nd in First League on 24 points from 10 games; Monaco are top in Ligue 1 on 13 points from 5 games.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lens.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
CSKA Sofia
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
Monaco
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CSKA Sofia and Monaco in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | First League | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: First League · Ligue 1
Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Monaco
CSKA Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Monaco
- Paris Josua Brunner4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
CSKA Sofia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 7.02 for Monaco. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.82 for Monaco. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Sofia rate 0.80 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monaco rate 1.22 and 0.87.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.82 for Monaco. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.87 for Monaco.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CSKA Sofia at home · Monaco away
League matches only, this season — CSKA Sofia in the First League, Monaco in the Ligue 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: CSKA Sofia 10 in the First League, Monaco 5 in the Ligue 1.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Monaco have let in 1 there.
Monaco score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
CSKA Sofia
- at FC Nordsjaelland22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 27%
- vs Ludogorets24 Oct · First Leaguewin 36%
- at Levski Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 25%
- at Panathinaikos5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 17%
Monaco
- at Lorient18 Oct · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs SC Freiburg22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 43%
- vs Lille25 Oct · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Paris FC1 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.