FC Copenhagen
vs
SC Braga
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Copenhagen 2–1 SC Braga
The model makes it 36% FC Copenhagen, 28% draw, 36% SC Braga — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Copenhagen 1.52, SC Braga 1.49.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Copenhagen and SC Braga are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Copenhagen are top in Superliga on 24 points from 9 games; SC Braga are 6th in Primeira Liga on 11 points from 6 games.
- FC Copenhagen are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Brondby.
- SC Braga have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Santa Clara.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Copenhagen at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga
FC Copenhagen
- W1-0away to Brondby20 September 2026
- W2-0AC Horsens11 September 2026
- W5-0away to Odense6 September 2026
- W2-0FC Nordsjaelland3 September 2026
- W3-1Sonderjyske31 August 2026
SC Braga
- D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Copenhagen won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Copenhagen kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Copenhagen and SC Braga in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 24 |
| 6 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · Primeira Liga
Leading scorers: FC Copenhagen and SC Braga
FC Copenhagen
- M. Elyounoussi6 goals2 assists
- B. Meling4 goals1 assist
SC Braga
- Pau Victor3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Copenhagen carry a model rating of 6.84 against 7.01 for SC Braga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for FC Copenhagen and 1.49 for SC Braga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Copenhagen rate 1.06 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Braga rate 1.15 and 0.83.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Copenhagen the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Copenhagen against 1.49 for SC Braga. FC Copenhagen's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.83 for SC Braga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Copenhagen at home · SC Braga away
League matches only, this season — FC Copenhagen in the Superliga, SC Braga in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Copenhagen 9 in the Superliga, SC Braga 6 in the Primeira Liga.
FC Copenhagen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); SC Braga have let in 1 there.
SC Braga score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Copenhagen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Copenhagen
- vs Aarhus18 Oct · Superligawin 51%
- at FK Crvena Zvezda22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
- vs Odense26 Oct · Superligawin 57%
- at Sonderjyske2 Nov · Superligawin 53%
SC Braga
- vs Gent22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
- at Nacional25 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 49%
- vs Famalicao1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.